306 Ray St · Cabot, AR 72023

$196,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1997 7,840 sqft lot Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Appraised at $196,000 as is and back on the market due to buyer home sale contingency with no fault of the property. This charming 3 bedroom 2 bath Cabot home blends comfort, style, and functionality while offering excellent value for buyers. From the moment you step through the welcoming entryway you will notice thoughtful details including custom accent walls and cathedral ceilings in the spacious living area that create an open and airy feel. Cozy up by the gas fireplace or cook in the kitchen featuring a gas stove that home chefs will appreciate. The primary suite offers comfort and privacy with a full bath, while two additional bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or a home offic

Key facts

• Cathedral ceilings
• Gas fireplace
• Gas stove

Tags

• CUSTOM ACCENT WALLS
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GAS STOVE
• FULL BATH
• 3 YEAR OLD HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, Conventional loans or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy); Natural gas; Cable TV available; Private telephone service; Wireless internet available
• Home design: Brick and frame with metal/vinyl siding exterior; Level lot in a subdivision
• Construction: Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fully fenced yard; Wood fence; Guttering; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; High-efficiency HVAC (14+ SEER)
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Ceiling fans; Wired for high-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-250/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Cabot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AR, #2,695 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $196k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,831 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,463
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Ray St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-1%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	92
17 War Eagle Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-3%)	3mo	$187,500	$151	84
15 Timberwood Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-7%)	8mo	$182,000	$154	80
14 White Eagle	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,113 (-12%)	7mo	$183,400	$165	72
27 Matthews Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	15mo	$110,000	$88	68
29 Elk Bear Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+8%)	18mo	$191,000	$140	64
15 War Eagle Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-10%)	21mo	$175,000	$153	57
31 Woodhaven Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-5%)	8mo	$190,000	$158	51
33 Woodhaven Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-5%)	12mo	$195,000	$162	49
25 Woodhaven Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-5%)	15mo	$186,500	$155	45
407 Eagle(mockingbird) St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	0mo	$85,000	$59	45
1010 S Hls	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+13%)	15mo	$195,000	$136	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,920
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,675
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72023

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $192,315

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $35	+0% $-21	+5% $-76	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-77	+0% $-21	+5% $36	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $29	base $-21	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Ray St Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,345	$1.01	15d	1	0.07mi
305 N Jackson St Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,395	$1.38	22d	1	0.88mi
2037 N Hills Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,450	$0.96	24d	1	0.96mi
106 S Grant St Cabot, AR	2.0	1.0	958	$1,050	$1.10	24d	1	1.07mi
17 Pleasant St Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	24d	1	1.21mi
807 W Elm St Unit 1D Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	957	$750	$0.78	24d	1	1.25mi
504 S Pool St Austin, AR	2.0	1.0	918	$750	$0.82	24d	1	1.31mi
303 S 10th St Apt 2 Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	1054	$900	$0.85	20d	1	1.38mi
1012 W Myrtle St Unit A Cabot, AR	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $196,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $196,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 New Listing 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 New Listing 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 New Listing 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   listed $196,000 New Listing 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 163.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$3,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cabot

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2695

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cabot, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 37,452
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,452
• Household income: $76,931
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.12%
• Current HPI: 182.3489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+154.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $196,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $195,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $196,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $196,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $195,000 CARMLS
• 2018-03-02 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CARMLS
• 2017-09-28 Listed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $78,350 CARMLS
• 2017-07-06 Sold (MLS) $78,350 CARMLS
• 2017-05-25 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-05-11 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-05-02 Listed $85,000 CARMLS
• 2017-05-01 Listed $85,000 CARMLS
• 1998-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.