Timms Plan · Geronimo, TX 78155

$209,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Private rear corner
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE REAR CORNER
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $209,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $220,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1375 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,765 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,530
• List price: $209,999
• Delta: -4.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163 Pastar Fls	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$184,999	$125	79
147 Pastar Fls	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$185,999	$125	78
166 Pastar Fls	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	2mo	$192,999	$130	77
150 Pastar Fls	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$188,999	$127	77
125 Pastar Fls	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	2mo	$193,999	$131	77
130 Pastar Fls	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	2mo	$190,999	$129	76
9060 Navarro Vista Vis	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$240,000	$144	62
215 Pastar Fls	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	61
207 Pastar Fls	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+13%)	1mo	$230,999	$137	59
167 Pastar Fls	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+13%)	2mo	$203,999	$121	57
9026 Colonel Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+10%)	1mo	$232,999	$141	56
151 Pastar Fls	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+13%)	2mo	$209,999	$124	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-45,033
• Equity at exit: $32,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-55,766
• Equity at exit: $19,067

Cash invested: $61,748 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1375
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,156
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,308/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $203,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-43	+0% $-120	+5% $-196	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-190	+0% $-120	+5% $-49	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-64	base $-120	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,133
• Closing costs: $6,616
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9230 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,795	$0.92	17d	1	0.02mi
9263 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,780	$0.91	2d	1	0.06mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	3d	1	0.08mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	2d	1	0.08mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	2d	1	0.10mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	2d	1	0.22mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	2d	1	0.27mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	0.27mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	44d	1	0.36mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	2d	1	0.46mi
8908 San Carlos Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2142	$2,050	$0.96	2d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,999 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,999 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,999 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,999 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,999 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,999 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 198 DOM
16. 2025-11-14
    listed $209,999 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,353
• − Property taxes: −$3,308
• − Insurance: −$1,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,415
• Taxable loss: −$5,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The home is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $209,999 Zillow