3856 Hertland Dr · Kettering, OH 45439

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 7,841 sqft lot Est $187k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 1,040 sq. ft. ranch in the heart of Kettering! This well-maintained home features a spacious living area with a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing or entertaining year-round. Step outside to enjoy the covered back porch overlooking the fully fenced backyard — ideal for pets, gatherings, or quiet evenings outdoors. Need extra storage or workspace? The oversized storage shed with a garage door offers endless possibilities for tools, hobbies, or outdoor equipment. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and parks, this home combines comfort, functionality, and value all in one! * Room sizes approximate.

Key facts

• Covered back porch
• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OVERSIZED STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (10 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level (9 x 9 and 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Living room on main level (30 x 15)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-200/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Fairmont High School (math 49% / reading 75%, grade B-, #202 of 781 statewide, top 29%, 2,486 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $175k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,014 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1681 Hillwood Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$205,000	$197	91
3690 Endover Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$173	91
3785 Endover Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	0mo	$187,500	$180	90
3890 Endover Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$180,000	$173	89
1770 Big Hill Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$192	83
3913 Elmira Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$212,900	$205	82
3743 Cordell Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-10%)	1mo	$155,000	$166	70
2169 Finland Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$213,000	$197	70
3565 Lodi Pl	0.30mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	0mo	$197,000	$210	69
2218 Finland Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	2mo	$189,000	$175	67
2190 Renshaw Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$194,080	$180	61
4476 Hannaford St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$190,000	$176	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-29,377
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,774
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45439

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,008/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $172,054

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $33	+0% $-17	+5% $-66	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-78	+0% $-17	+5% $45	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $28	base $-17	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1643 Archdeacon Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	23d	1	0.07mi
3781 Keswick Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	4d	1	0.09mi
3657 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	936	$1,450	$1.55	45d	1	0.25mi
3928 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,550	$1.49	4d	1	0.35mi
3401 Southdale Dr #5 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	23d	1	0.45mi
3924 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	813	$1,800	$2.21	4d	1	0.54mi
3929 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	788	$750	$0.95	21d	1	0.57mi
4042 Ellery Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	45d	1	0.62mi
4217 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	45d	1	0.83mi
2621 Nyack Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	16d	1	1.05mi
1333 Central Park Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	846	$1,350	$1.60	16d	1	1.08mi
5237 Belle Isle Dr Unit 5237 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$1,025	$1.07	45d	1	1.47mi
2800 Cadillac St Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	748	$1,295	$1.73	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $175,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-28
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2023-02-06
   soldstatus $111,000
4. 1996-10-01
   soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,008
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$756
• After-tax cash flow: $556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #922

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 73,116
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,914
• Household income: $52,035
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.06%
• Current HPI: 287.2064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+119.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $175,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,008 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.