2963 Santa Rosa Ave Unit C-12 · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $117k · 11% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute home in an all age park, ready for some fresh paint to make it your own. Priced to sell. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom (custom tiled shower). Great carport parking for 3 cars, and a custom shed at the end of the carport. A small room added into the living room that can be taken out if you need more living room area. This home also offers cement siding for the added security of never worrying about dry rot. Ant to top it off a brand new heater put in last year.

Key facts

• Cement siding
• Carport parking
• Custom shed

Tags

• CUSTOM TILED SHOWER
• CARPORT PARKING
• CUSTOM SHED
• CEMENT SIDING
• BRAND NEW HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $945
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Original condition
• Construction: Manufactured home by Fleetwood; Make: Westfield
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl skirting; Located in a park (Sunset Park); Land lease in effect

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Hood over range; Laminate countertops; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s); Room air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.19%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,000
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2963 Santa Rosa Ave Unit C-12	0.00mi	2/1.0	750 (0%)	0mo	$117,000	$156	100
252 Pear Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	743 (-1%)	1mo	$35,000	$47	84
280 Aileen Way	0.27mi	2/1.0	720 (-4%)	10mo	$102,000	$142	72
255 Apple Ln	0.32mi	2/1.0	784 (+4%)	12mo	$70,000	$89	68
3309 Santa Rosa Ave #17	0.56mi	2/2.0	800 (+7%)	9mo	$140,000	$175	51
29 Wayside Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	784 (+4%)	12mo	$119,000	$152	48
115 Coachman Ln #19	0.75mi	2/1.0	672 (-10%)	8mo	$120,000	$179	41
131 El Crystal Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	640 (-15%)	13mo	$122,500	$191	39
319 Apple Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	850 (+13%)	17mo	$111,000	$131	38
157 Plaza Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	640 (-15%)	15mo	$134,000	$209	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $50,572
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $135,677
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	13d	1	0.32mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.47mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	13d	6	0.49mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,852	$2.49	13d	15	0.63mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	13d	1	0.72mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	0.81mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	0.81mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	13d	1	0.81mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	13d	1	0.85mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	13d	1	0.98mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	13d	1	0.98mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	13d	27	0.98mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	13d	1	1.00mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	13d	8	1.07mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	1.21mi
777 Aston Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,749	$2.75	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Contingent (Show) 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Contingent (Show) 89 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Contingent (Show) 88 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Contingent (Show) 87 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent (Show)
7. 2026-04-06
   price $130,000
8. 2026-03-22
   price $135,000
9. 2026-03-04
   listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 211.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,297
• − Management: −$2,297
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $12,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $10,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $130,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $135,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.