830 Hemingway Rd · Orion, MI 48362

$559,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 0.63 ac lot Est $732k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 830 Hemingway! A beautifully maintained Cape Cod-style home in Orion Township offering exceptional privacy just minutes from downtown Lake Orion. This home offers outstanding outdoor living with a private backyard oasis featuring mature trees, extensive hardscape paver patios, and a tranquil pond. Garden area has been prepared and ready for planting. In addition to the attached garage, you'll find heated detached garage/workshop with additional storage above. Fully finished shed provides more flexible space for hobbies, work, or relaxation (separate entry). Inside, the unique floor plan offers a family room highlighted by a stone fireplace and mantle (gas). The kitchen is equippe

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on approximately 0.63 acres (frontage ~118')

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 parking spaces; Electric in garage, garage door opener, heated garage, side-loading; Workshop area in garage; Direct interior access to the home
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas service; Public sewer (implied); Electric service (implied)
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1998; Basement (finished)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Fenced yard; Lawn sprinkler system; Patio; Porch; Pond on property; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (approx. 11 x 12) with wood flooring; Appliances included: Dishwasher, Range/Oven, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on entry level (14 x 18) with carpet; Second bedroom on second level (17 x 29) with carpet; Third bedroom on second level (width 30) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and family room; Wood flooring in kitchen and dining room; Ceramic flooring in bathrooms
• Bathrooms: Four total baths/lavatories (3 full, 1 lavatory); Main/entry-level bath: ceramic floors, approx. 7 x 12; Second-level bath: ceramic floors, approx. 8 x 9; Basement bath: ceramic floors
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central A/C; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Fireplace (family room, gas); Spa / jetted tub; Sound system; Finished basement; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on entry level (approx. 11 x 10); Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $535k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $535k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $535,000 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $731,666
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1062 Key West Ct	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,458 (+1%)	4mo	$520,000	$150	63
1133 Walloon Way	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,126 (-9%)	1mo	$396,000	$127	53
924 Pine Ave	0.42mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,098 (-9%)	13mo	$780,000	$252	49
655 Ferndale Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,279 (-4%)	18mo	$334,650	$102	49
1162 Heights Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,921 (+15%)	12mo	$837,900	$214	35
1157 Arbroak Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,929 (+15%)	12mo	$1,237,000	$315	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-49,513
• Equity at exit: $83,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $9,682
• Equity at exit: $48,410

Cash invested: $156,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,936
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,901/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,124
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,529

Max offer price $559,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,975
• Closing costs: $16,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	1d	4	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $559,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $559,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $559,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $559,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $559,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $559,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,901 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,762 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,861/yr (+$155/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,901
• − Insurance: −$2,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,136
• − Management: −$5,136
• − Depreciation: −$16,288
• Taxable loss: −$1,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$342
• After-tax cash flow: $8,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $559,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,901 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.