312 Choice Dr · Red Oak, TX 75152

$264,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2017 0.62 ac lot $159/sqft · 25% below area Est $353k · 25% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious double-wide manufactured home with plenty of room for parking and gatherings. This 2017 home is full of life and a must-see if you’re looking for space on a fenced property—perfect for entertaining, vehicles, and more. Casa con mucho espacio para estacionamiento y reuniones. Esta propiedad del 2017 con 4 recámaras está llena de vida y es una excelente opción si busca espacio en un terreno cercado, ideal para sus camionetas, reuniones y sus animales.

Key facts

• Fenced property
• Room for parking
• Space for gatherings

Tags

• FENCED PROPERTY
• ROOM FOR PARKING
• SPACE FOR GATHERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,980 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,190
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: -25.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Golden Coast Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (0%)	6mo	$149,999	$90	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,486
• Equity at exit: $60,816

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $18,449
• Equity at exit: $61,414

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75152

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,372/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $220	+0% $145	+5% $70	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $57	+0% $145	+5% $233	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $212	base $145	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $264,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $265,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Spacious double-wide manufactured home with plenty of room for parking and gatherings. This 2017 home is full of life and a must-see if you’re looking for space on a fenced property—perfect for entertaining, vehicles, and more. Casa con mucho espacio para estacionamiento y reuniones. Esta propiedad del 2017 con 4 recámaras está llena de vida y es una excelente opción si busca espacio en un terreno cercado, ideal para sus camionetas, reuniones y sus animales.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $275,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Spacious double-wide manufactured home with plenty of room for parking and gatherings. This 2017 home is full of life and a must-see if you’re looking for space on a fenced property—perfect for entertaining, vehicles, and more. Casa con mucho espacio para estacionamiento y reuniones. Esta propiedad del 2017 con 4 recámaras está llena de vida y es una excelente opción si busca espacio en un terreno cercado, ideal para sus camionetas, reuniones y sus animales.

17. 2026-02-02
    listed $290,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Spacious double-wide manufactured home with plenty of room for parking and gatherings. This 2017 home is full of life and a must-see if you’re looking for space on a fenced property—perfect for entertaining, vehicles, and more. Casa con mucho espacio para estacionamiento y reuniones. Esta propiedad del 2017 con 4 recámaras está llena de vida y es una excelente opción si busca espacio en un terreno cercado, ideal para sus camionetas, reuniones y sus animales.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,831 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,459/yr (+$288/mo · 252.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$1,372
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$2,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $2,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,516
• Population (ZIP): 5,563

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Current HPI: 360.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,372 · -24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.