2538 W Kensington Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1971 0.26 ac lot Est $165k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come tour this well-kept home and discover its great features and fantastic location.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Glenn Hills Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 393 students, 98% FRL); Glenn Hills Middle School (math 2% / reading 6%, grade F, #467 of 470 statewide, top 99%, 762 students, 98% FRL); Glenn Hills High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #421 of 424 statewide, top 100%, 883 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 4% at this address vs 16% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Richmond County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.17%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,754
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2538 E Kensington Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-0%)	8mo	$210,500	$145	93
3411 Webster Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	7mo	$141,400	$105	73
3426 S Kensington Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,326 (-9%)	2mo	$89,000	$67	70
2528 Georgetown Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-9%)	6mo	$150,000	$113	70
3308 Blanchard Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	1mo	$171,900	$133	63
3606 Rolling Meadows Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-0%)	14mo	$158,500	$109	56
2505 Blackstone St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-14%)	8mo	$140,000	$112	55
3204 Hillis Road Rd	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,335 (-8%)	8mo	$162,900	$122	54
3602 Rolling Meadows Dr	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,479 (+1%)	14mo	$165,000	$112	51
2963 Meadowbrook Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (+13%)	6mo	$155,000	$94	37
3007 Meadowbrook Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+15%)	3mo	$218,000	$130	35
3609 Cameron Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+12%)	12mo	$206,000	$126	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-105
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $15,347
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30906

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $436	+0% $399	+5% $363	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $340	+0% $399	+5% $459	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $433	base $399	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3412 Kensington Dr N Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,350	$1.10	24d	1	0.22mi
3320 Hillis Rd Augusta, GA	4.0	3.0	1788	$1,850	$1.03	14d	1	0.26mi
3200 Deans Bridge Rd Augusta, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1075	$970	$0.90	24d	6	0.42mi
2941 Rollingwood Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	24d	1	0.46mi
3519 Evangeline Dr Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,595	$0.89	44d	1	0.47mi
2914 Cumberland Dr Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	21d	1	0.50mi
3504 Osage Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1425	$1,556	$1.09	14d	1	0.70mi
2707 Gardenbrook Ct Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,606	$0.93	44d	1	0.84mi
2612 Lumpkin Rd Augusta, GA	3.0	1.5	1614	$1,450	$0.90	44d	1	0.91mi
3001 Alene Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,631	$1.27	24d	1	0.93mi
2808 Nighthawk Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.95mi
3613 Alene Cir Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,325	$1.05	14d	1	0.96mi
2708 Blossom Dr Unit B Augusta, GA	2.0	1.5	896	$950	$1.06	44d	1	1.06mi
2830 Lumpkin Rd Unit A Augusta, GA	3.0	1.5	1000	$900	$0.90	24d	1	1.07mi
3517 Byron Pl Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	44d	1	1.19mi
2813 Leawood Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,250	$0.91	44d	1	1.25mi
2544 Dover St Unit 2544 Augusta, GA	3.0	1.0	888	$900	$1.01	44d	1	1.30mi
2631 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,430	$1.02	14d	1	1.42mi
2524 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	1.46mi
2609 Dublin Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-26
   soldstatus $130,000
2. 2026-01-20
   historical
3. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-20
   historical
5. 2025-11-19
   listed $130,000
6. 2025-11-19
   listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$455/yr (+$38/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$677
• After-tax cash flow: $4,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 60,423
• Household income: $45,999
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.99%
• Current HPI: 213.5733
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.