1403 Pecan St · Hearne, TX 77859

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2001 5,750 sqft lot $65/sqft · 38% below area Est $121k · 38% under ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your next investment? This could be it. Lots of space, lots of potential. Definitely needs some loving.

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.9% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.68%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,362
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -38.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 W Davis St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	5mo	$85,000	$71	57
1301 Crennan St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,203 (+4%)	14mo	$210,000	$175	56
601 Pine St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	16mo	$140,000	$109	45
101 N San Marcos St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-12%)	5mo	$120,000	$118	44
906 W 3rd St	0.46mi	3/1.0	999 (-13%)	11mo	$125,000	$125	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $66,181
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.34×
• Total profit: $175,112
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77859

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,760/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 New St Hearne, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	13d	1	0.46mi
401 E 3rd St Hearne, TX	4.0	3.0	1338	$1,500	$1.12	21d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $75,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $75,000 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Looking for your next investment? This could be it. Lots of space, lots of potential. Definitely needs some loving.

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $80,000 Active 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Looking for your next investment? This could be it. Lots of space, lots of potential. Definitely needs some loving.

18. 2024-11-09
    price $89,000
19. 2024-10-29
    price $99,000
20. 2024-10-23
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,760 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,760 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,760
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$921
• After-tax cash flow: $3,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hearne, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,516

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 29% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.97%
• Current HPI: 177.7117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $75,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $80,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $89,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $99,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $110,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,760 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.