2578 Powderhorn Ridge Rd · Rochester Hills, MI 48309

$484,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 0.28 ac lot $181/sqft · 15% above area Est $549k · 12% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $287 (about $23.92/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; In-ground pool; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing gas oven/range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Smart thermostat; Fireplace in the family room; Partially finished basement; Laundry room; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $464k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $391k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Rochester Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#127 in MI, #3,163 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester Community School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #21 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $485k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $390,810 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,417
• List price: $484,900
• Delta: -11.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2729 Powderhorn Ridge Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,862 (+7%)	2mo	$605,000	$211	78
897 Augusta Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,678 (+0%)	1mo	$490,000	$183	69
100 Longford Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,610 (-2%)	4mo	$440,000	$169	62
2270 Walton Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,809 (+5%)	8mo	$610,420	$217	60
2793 Steamboat Springs Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,918 (+9%)	6mo	$400,000	$137	57
159 E Maryknoll Rd	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,735 (+2%)	8mo	$482,000	$176	57
2452 Lassiter Dr	0.44mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,905 (+9%)	4mo	$453,000	$156	57
487 Pinehurst Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,459 (-8%)	4mo	$421,500	$171	56
216 Nevada Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,970 (+11%)	3mo	$391,000	$132	54
2689 Roseview Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,455 (-8%)	11mo	$520,000	$212	50
87 E Maryknoll Rd	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,388 (-11%)	7mo	$505,000	$211	49
2330 Walton Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,360 (-12%)	0mo	$390,000	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-86,087
• Equity at exit: $72,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-84,721
• Equity at exit: $41,925

Cash invested: $135,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48309

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,231/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,057

Max offer price $464,150

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,225
• Closing costs: $14,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1947 N Fairview Ln Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	2.5	2616	$3,500	$1.34	4d	1	1.11mi
1467 Rochdale Pond Ct Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	3.0	2510	$4,375	$1.74	23d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

3. 2026-05-07
   listed $484,900 Active 1460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

4. 2026-05-07
   listed $484,900 Active 1467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

5. 2026-05-05
   historical $484,900 1460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1460 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained four-bedroom colonial in the highly desirable Shadow Woods neighborhood!! With award-winning Rochester schools & its close proximity to the village of Rochester, this one is ready for its next adventure! The moment you enter, the abundant light & flow will capture you. The heart of the home is the stunning 2021 updated kitchen, featuring quartz countertops, a spacious center island, breakfast nook and bright white cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining! The kitchen opens seamlessly into a large family room with a wet bar, classic brick fireplace and door wall leading to your private outdoor oasis, complete with an inground pool and expansive green space. A bright living room and generous dining room offer additional gathering spaces, while a first-floor laundry and dedicated library provide everyday convenience and flexibility. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers room for a sitting area, along with a private en-suite bath and a large closet. Three additional bedrooms and main hall bathroom complete the second level. The partially finished lower level provides endless potential & storage galore! Updates include: Updated Kitchen-2021; New SS appliances-2021; HWH-2021; Sump pump-2020 and more! Don't miss out on this wonderful opportunity to live like your on vacation with your own backyard oasis & enjoy all that Rochester Hills has to offer!!

6. 1987-09-01
   soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,231 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,349 · $529/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,118/yr (+$93/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,162
• − Property taxes: −$5,231
• − Insurance: −$2,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,752
• − Management: −$3,752
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$14,106
• Taxable loss: −$9,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,356
• After-tax cash flow: $947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2629940
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $89,242
• Composite: 58.53/100
• National rank: #994
• State rank: #21 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #3163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester Hills, MI
• City population: 44,714
• Population (ZIP): 30,254

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.99%
• Current HPI: 201.9197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+177.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listed $484,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $484,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $484,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,231 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.