124 Birchwood Dr · Flat Rock, NC 27030

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1957 0.49 ac lot Est $235k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this cozy home that is ready for new owners! All appliances including washer and dryer convey! Breezeway would be ideal for a seating area to enjoy a cup of coffee. The backyard is cleared and level. There are several areas that would be a great spot for a garden-there's already a cherry tree on the property! Roof was just installed in 2018. Basement was recently waterproofed. Seller believes there are hardwoods underneath current flooring.Schedule an appointment to see this one before it's gone!

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Electric cooktop
• Cinderblock home

Tags

• CINDERBLOCK HOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BUILT-IN BOOKCASE
• STAINLESS STEEL DISHWASHER
• ELECTRIC COOKTOP
• BUILT-IN OVEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Head toward Kirkman Rd, turn right onto Lovers Ln, turn left onto Smith Ln, turn left onto Birchwood Dr
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Subdivision: Hamburg

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electric water heater; Septic tank; Public water
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One story; Built in 1957; Existing structure
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.49 acres; Public water; Septic tank; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Wall unit(s); Forced air heating; Oil heating fuel
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.5% in Flat Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#330 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Airy City Schools (town): math 51% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #69 of 178 in NC (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 243 units permitted in Surry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Surry County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $120k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,200
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Birchwood Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,417 (+5%)	0mo	$117,500	$83	91
138 Durham Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+4%)	5mo	$332,500	$239	71
174 Fairview Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,239 (-8%)	8mo	$142,000	$115	62
353 Smith Ln	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,429 (+6%)	22mo	$262,000	$183	52
1512 Pittman St	0.58mi	2/3.0	1,220 (-9%)	1mo	$299,900	$246	48
1729 Surry Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (+2%)	23mo	$270,000	$197	46
132 Hilda Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,362 (+1%)	19mo	$228,000	$167	44
131 Hilda Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,232 (-8%)	4mo	$215,000	$175	42
111 Vine St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+6%)	10mo	$250,000	$175	41
1610 S Main St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	12mo	$141,000	$118	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $789
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $26,629
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27030

• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 Willow St Mount Airy, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,641	$2.01	43d	9	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $119,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-05
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $3,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Airy City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703210
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,113
• Composite: 41.19/100
• National rank: #3546
• State rank: #69 of 178 in NC

Livability — Flat Rock

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #13447

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flat Rock, NC
• County: Surry County · 36,241 people
• Metro: Mount Airy, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,241
• Household income: $46,377
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Surry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,473 people
• By 2030: 66,964 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 60,967 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 54,102 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 38,806 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 24,711 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Surry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 23.0% · R 76.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+51.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.64%
• Current HPI: 177.1549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Airy, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $119,900 Triad MLS
• 2020-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Triad MLS
• 2020-06-02 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2020-05-09 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2019-11-13 Price Changed $82,900 Triad MLS
• 2019-08-14 Listed $84,900 Triad MLS
• 2016-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-13 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Triad MLS
• 2016-10-25 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2016-09-01 Price Changed $59,900 Triad MLS
• 2016-06-29 Price Changed $61,500 Triad MLS
• 2016-03-16 Price Changed $63,900 Triad MLS
• 2015-11-09 Listed $68,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.