16640 Woodland Retreat Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$278,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 4 Beds and 2 Full Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Large Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with On-Site Elementary School, Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walk

Key facts

• Split plan layout
• Quartz counter tops
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• UPGRADED CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a subdivision
• HOA & community: Association: Associa Principal Management; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property under construction; New construction by D.R. Horton; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Private yard; Porch; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $278,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,497.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($249/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $247,837 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,497
• List price: $278,990
• Delta: 2.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15557 Granger Green Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,750 (0%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	95
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,750 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	94
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,750 (0%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	92
16807 Country Roots Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+3%)	2mo	$277,990	$155	91
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-3%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	78
16811 Country Roots Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-10%)	3mo	$259,990	$165	73
16900 Hazelnut Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	1,721 (-2%)	2mo	$269,990	$157	71
16912 Hazelnut Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,721 (-2%)	4mo	$259,990	$151	68
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-13%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	64
16980 Hazelnut Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+7%)	3mo	$259,900	$139	52
14308 Ash Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+10%)	2mo	$269,900	$140	45
17014 Hazelnut Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+10%)	3mo	$274,900	$142	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,014
• Equity at exit: $40,630

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-31,499
• Equity at exit: $23,561

Cash invested: $76,299 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,087/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $272,497

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $115	+0% $21	+5% $-73	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-77	+0% $21	+5% $119	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $90	base $21	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,124
• Closing costs: $8,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.84mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	0.97mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	1.29mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $278,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $278,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $280,990 Active 765-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,264
• − Property taxes: −$4,087
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,927
• Taxable loss: −$4,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $1,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 26 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a smart home package and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home package — Enhances home's appeal and functionality
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home package — Enhances home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $280,990 HARMLS