5568 Buckeye Bend Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34772

$373,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction home with 1715 square feet on one-story including 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open living area. Enjoy an open kitchen with 42" shaker-style cabinets, Quartz countertops, Samsung stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island, fully open to the dining café and gathering room. The living area, laundry room, and baths include luxury wood vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Enjoy a covered lanai, 2-car garage, custom-fit window blinds, architectural shingles, energy-efficient insulation and windows, and a full builder warranty * * * Please note - Virtual Tour/Photos showcases the home layout; colors and design o

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $374k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Tree Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 795 students, 48% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,644 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-90,349
• Equity at exit: $55,750

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-122,128
• Equity at exit: $32,328

Cash invested: $104,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 879
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,608/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,281

Max offer price $310,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-309	+0% $-438	+5% $-567	+10% $-696
Rent	-10% $-653	-5% $-546	+0% $-438	+5% $-330	+10% $-223
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-343	base $-438	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,475
• Closing costs: $11,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3923 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,350	$1.27	26d	1	1.20mi
3928 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,924	$1.60	17d	1	1.23mi
5116 Tana Ter Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,395	$1.31	22d	1	1.45mi
4095 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	26d	1	1.46mi
4113 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1452	$2,160	$1.49	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $373,900 Active
3. 2025-12-05
   soldstatus $2,089,547

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,944
• − Property taxes: −$5,608
• − Insurance: −$1,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$10,877
• Taxable loss: −$11,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,859
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-82.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $373,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $2,089,547 Public Records