Independence Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$271,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Covered patio
• Kitchen areas

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING AREAS
• KITCHEN AREAS
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $271,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,888.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,992 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,888
• List price: $271,990
• Delta: -8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6727 Camila St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-0%)	1mo	$259,000	$173	92
6715 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+0%)	1mo	$289,990	$193	86
6702 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+0%)	1mo	$294,990	$197	85
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	2mo	$254,970	$181	80
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+6%)	2mo	$299,100	$188	78
6910 Bens Lndg	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	1mo	$280,790	$186	77
6830 Bens Lndg	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+6%)	2mo	$274,870	$174	69
14531 Sweetwater Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+1%)	1mo	$269,999	$178	69
7122 Thomas James Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+6%)	0mo	$286,920	$182	65
610 Lost Creek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-6%)	1mo	$255,000	$181	62
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+9%)	0mo	$289,000	$177	56
6922 Bens Lndg	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+10%)	2mo	$269,180	$164	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-75,248
• Equity at exit: $44,267

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-97,917
• Equity at exit: $25,669

Cash invested: $83,129 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,000 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,453/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,597

Max offer price $233,192

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-338	+0% $-440	+5% $-543	+10% $-645
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-521	+0% $-440	+5% $-360	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-291	-0.5pp $-365	base $-440	+0.5pp $-517	+1.0pp $-595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,222
• Closing costs: $8,907
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	93d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	50d	1	0.66mi
5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,700	$1.46	8d	1	0.69mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	27d	1	0.85mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	0.89mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.96mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	7d	1	1.06mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	38d	1	1.25mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	66d	1	1.25mi
1 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,095	$1.04	2d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	64d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	52d	1	1.30mi
74 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,195	$1.12	28d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $271,990 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $271,990 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $271,990 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $271,990 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $271,990 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $271,990 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $271,990 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $271,990 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $271,990 Active 499 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $271,990 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $271,990 Active 496 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $271,990 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $271,990 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $271,990 Active 493 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,990 Active 491 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,990 Active 490 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $271,990 Active 489 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $271,990 Active 488 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $271,990 Active 487 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,990 Active 486 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,990 Active 485 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $271,990 Active 484 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $271,990 Active 483 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $271,990 Active 482 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $271,990 Active 480 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,990 Active 479 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,990 Active 478 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $271,990 Active 477 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 476 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $271,990 Active 475 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $271,990 Active 474 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $271,990 Active 473 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $271,990 Active 472 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $271,990 Active 471 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $271,990 Active 470 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $271,990 Active 469 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $271,990 Active 467 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $271,990 Active 465 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $271,990 Active 464 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $271,990 Active 461 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $271,990 Active 460 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $271,990 Active 459 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $271,990 Active 458 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $271,990 Active 456 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $271,990 Active 452 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $271,990 Active 451 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $271,990 Active 450 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $271,990 Active 447 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 446 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,990 Active 445 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,630
• − Property taxes: −$4,453
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$8,637
• Taxable loss: −$10,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,554
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,485–$22,455 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgraded flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $279,990 Zillow