24314 Birch Pl · Ocean Park, WA 98640

$345,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1991 0.28 ac lot $267/sqft · 25% below area Est $458k · 25% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller wants an offer with this new price! A nature's paradise awaits you with this beautiful lake front home! Just minutes to the Pacific Ocean or Willapa Bay, it’s not often homes go on the market that are on Paul's Lake! Drop your kayak from the back yard and start living! This spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is on a 12,000 square foot lot with an outdoor fire pit, storage shed and row boat included! Pick some apples off your apple tree while enjoying the lake view. Skylights let the sun shine in, ceramic tile kitchen floor and newer laminate hardwood make for easy cleaning. This home is priced to sell and won't last long on the market. Call today!

Key facts

• Lake view
• Lake front home
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAKE FRONT HOME
• OUTDOOR FIRE PIT
• STORAGE SHED
• ROW BOAT INCLUDED
• APPLE TREE
• LAKE VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Park Elementary (196 students, 76% FRL); Hilltop Elementary School (236 students, 70% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $346k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $290,000 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $458,081
• List price: $345,500
• Delta: -24.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24406 Gile Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (+3%)	22mo	$390,000	$293	63
25646 Z St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	11mo	$499,000	$385	52
1807 243rd Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+14%)	11mo	$425,000	$289	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-47,797
• Equity at exit: $51,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-31,341
• Equity at exit: $29,873

Cash invested: $96,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98640

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,812
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,461/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,735

Max offer price $345,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $228	+0% $130	+5% $32	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $16	+0% $130	+5% $245	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $218	base $130	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,375
• Closing costs: $10,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24904 J Pl Ocean Park, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,900	$3.22	45d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $345,500 Pending 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,500 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $345,500 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,500 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,500 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,500 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,500 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,500 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,500 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,500 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-04-15
    price $345,500
13. 2026-03-25
    price $365,500
14. 2026-03-06
    price $375,500
15. 2005-03-23
    soldstatus $144,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$924/yr (+$77/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,353
• − Property taxes: −$2,461
• − Insurance: −$1,728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$10,051
• Taxable loss: −$4,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.15%
• Current HPI: 222.8758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+139.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $345,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $365,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $375,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,461 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.