1729 Cr 4430 · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$215,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1990 1.03 ac lot Est $248k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this cute country cottage! Positioned in the quiet countryside and only minutes to downtown Winnsboro, this home offers the perfect mix of comfort, style, and peace of mind. Nestled on a spacious lot with mature trees, you will love the shade, privacy, and inviting outdoor space designed for relaxing evenings and entertaining year-round. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a comfortable and practical layout making everyday living both convenient and organized. The home is in good condition and is topped with a durable metal roof for long-term value and low maintenance. Master bathroom is featuring a 6-foot tub, split vanities, and a spacious walk-in shower. The kitchen and dining

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Spacious lot
• 6-foot tub

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• INVITING OUTDOOR SPACE
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• MASTER BATHROOM
• 6-FOOT TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel and paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and metal siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,877 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
443 County Road 4441	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	23mo	$279,500	$170	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-34,644
• Equity at exit: $32,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,966
• Equity at exit: $18,667

Cash invested: $60,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,660

Max offer price $215,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,975
• Closing costs: $6,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $215,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,951 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,877/yr (+$240/mo · 268.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,094
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$6,281
• Taxable loss: −$3,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $215,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.