24 Arrow Wood Pl · Round Lake, NY 12020

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1984 6,969 sqft lot $295/sqft · 12% below area Est $401k · 13% under $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom townhome with first floor bedroom and bath. Open kitchen with breakfast counter. Walking path in back yard brings you to park and miles of fun trails. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Kitchen island

Tags

• UPDATED TOWNHOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DUCTLESS MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• PORCELAIN TILE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $140 (fee covers other items)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with garage door opener; Driveway parking; Paved off-street parking — total 4 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry on first level
• Construction: Wood siding with drywall interior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built living area listed (1,199)
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved driveway; Paved drive; Garden; Exterior lighting; Storm door(s); Wood fencing with gate around the backyard; Landscaped, level, private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen with island; Quartz countertops; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Large primary bedroom on the first floor; Large primary bedroom on the second floor; Large second-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms — one on the first floor, one on the second floor; Both bathrooms renovated with porcelain tile
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Ductless heating and cooling
• Interior features: Open concept living and dining areas with vaulted ceiling; Paddle fan; Solid surface counters; Ceramic tile in bathrooms; Sliding doors; Low-E, double-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows with blinds and screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Round Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#236 in NY, #3,708 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malta Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 342 students, 29% FRL); Ballston Spa Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 945 students, 32% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $349k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $246,888 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,593
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -12.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Arrow Wood Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,184 (0%)	8mo	$340,000	$287	86
204 Arrow Wood Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,184 (0%)	7mo	$330,000	$279	86
89 Arrow Wood Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-2%)	8mo	$300,000	$259	76
78 Arrow Wood Pl	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,195 (+1%)	6mo	$279,000	$233	75
62 Pepperbush Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,184 (0%)	8mo	$340,000	$287	73
52 Wake Robin Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-5%)	14mo	$326,500	$292	72
50 Pepper Bush Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,184 (0%)	16mo	$351,000	$296	66
56 Arrow Wood Pl	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (-11%)	8mo	$278,500	$264	62
1B Scotch Mist Way	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,276 (+8%)	9mo	$295,000	$231	56
21 Pepperbush Pl	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,123 (-5%)	15mo	$275,000	$245	55
16 Snowberry Rd	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,276 (+8%)	11mo	$325,000	$255	52
131 Thimbleberry Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+14%)	2mo	$337,500	$250	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-71,879
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-39,666
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,905/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $270,224

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-347	+0% $-446	+5% $-545	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-641	-5% $-543	+0% $-446	+5% $-348	+10% $-251
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-357	base $-446	+0.5pp $-536	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Snowberry Rd Ballston Spa, NY	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,750	$2.35	45d	1	0.26mi
2101 Ellsworth Blvd Ballston Spa, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,230	$2.56	16d	21	0.40mi
145 Thimbleberry Rd Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$1,800	$1.98	25d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 822-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $349,000 Active 822-char remark
3. 2004-08-31
   soldstatus $134,000
4. 2004-08-13
   soldstatus $134,000 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom townhome with first floor bedroom and bath. Open kitchen with breakfast counter. Walking path in back yard brings you to park and miles of fun trails. Excellent Condition

5. 2004-07-09
   historical 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom townhome with first floor bedroom and bath. Open kitchen with breakfast counter. Walking path in back yard brings you to park and miles of fun trails. Excellent Condition

6. 2004-05-10
   listed $139,900 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom townhome with first floor bedroom and bath. Open kitchen with breakfast counter. Walking path in back yard brings you to park and miles of fun trails. Excellent Condition

7. 2003-03-07
   soldstatus $88,000
8. 2003-01-31
   soldstatus $88,000

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT. Excellent Condition

9. 2003-01-07
   listed $88,000

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT. Excellent Condition

10. 2003-01-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT. Excellent Condition

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,905 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,401 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$497/yr (+$41/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$4,905
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$11,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Round Lake

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #3708

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+296.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $349,000 Global MLS
• 2004-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-13 Sold (MLS) $134,000 Global MLS
• 2004-07-09 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2004-05-10 Listed $139,900 Global MLS
• 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-31 Sold (MLS) $88,000 Global MLS
• 2003-01-07 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2003-01-07 Listed $88,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,905 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.