18509 S 1600 Rd · Nevada, MO 64772

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1994 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers 1,232 square feet of comfortable living space and sits on approximately 0.6 acres just outside the city limits with blacktop road frontage. Recent updates include LVP flooring, while the exterior features vinyl siding, a metal roof, and a block foundation. Two older outbuildings provide additional storage and workspace. To help make for a smoother transaction, both a termite inspection and general home inspection have already been completed. Affordable country living with the convenience of town just minutes away!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Rural water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built approximately 31–40 years ago
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Paved road access; Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Kitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Partial storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry area off the kitchen; Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($591/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Nevada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#519 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada R-V (town): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #180 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Truman Elem. (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #744 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 500 students, 58% FRL); Nevada Middle (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #180 of 391 statewide, top 47%, 529 students, 54% FRL); Nevada High (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 786 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Vernon County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vernon County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,057 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-21,220
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,707
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64772

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $92	+0% $49	+5% $7	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $2	+0% $49	+5% $97	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $87	base $49	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 613-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $149,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$71/mo · 139.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$483
• After-tax cash flow: $1,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada R-V
• NCES district ID: 2921840
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,804
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5792
• State rank: #180 of 324 in MO

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #19644

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,930

Population outlook (Vernon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,169 people
• By 2030: 19,639 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 18,551 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 17,549 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 15,314 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 13,132 · -34.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vernon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.8% · R 79.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+57.2 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+22.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.21%
• Current HPI: 150.7283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Coming Soon $149,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.