7506 Castle Rock Dr · Clinton, MD 20735

$399,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1999 10,635 sqft lot $189/sqft · 23% below area Est $517k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This home features an open floor plan with spacious living room, dining room, and family room areas, creating a flexible layout for everyday living and entertaining. The main level includes a convenient half bath, and the basement provides additional space ready for your ideas. Situated on a large lot, this property offers great potential for buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Ideally located near shopping, dining, parks, and major commuter routes. Just minutes from National Harbor, MGM National Harbor, Tanger Outlets, and Joint Base Andrews, offering easy access to more entertainment, retail, and employment centers. “Chase Employees: Please see the Chase Acknowledgement for restrictions. Buyer must sign at offer/contract”. All offers must be submitted by the buyer’s agent using the online offer management system. Access the system via HUBZU website.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LOT
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.3% in Clinton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#304 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $517,295
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -22.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7708 Castle Rock Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,095 (-0%)	11mo	$510,000	$243	80
7514 Burntwood Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,006 (-5%)	18mo	$429,900	$214	73
7729 Castle Rock Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,296 (+9%)	5mo	$575,000	$250	70
8617 Woodyard Rd	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,028 (-4%)	2mo	$479,000	$236	67
8403 Branchwood Cir	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,018 (-4%)	12mo	$335,000	$166	65
7905 Godfrey Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,128 (+1%)	21mo	$549,000	$258	62
7004 Vismanco Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,296 (+9%)	5mo	$465,000	$203	62
7900 Mike Shapiro Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,016 (-4%)	21mo	$500,000	$248	55
6905 E Clinton St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (-9%)	5mo	$430,000	$225	53
6901 Mumford St	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,184 (+4%)	18mo	$490,000	$224	53
8328 Woodyard Rd	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,824 (-13%)	12mo	$460,000	$252	45
8805 Bolero Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,790 (-15%)	10mo	$410,000	$229	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-47,678
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-19,528
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20735

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,764/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,467

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $379	+0% $266	+5% $153	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $116	+0% $266	+5% $416	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $367	base $266	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7214 Glenelg Ct Clinton, MD	3.0	3.5	2100	$3,675	$1.75	19d	1	0.12mi
6612 Bullrush Ct Clinton, MD	3.0	3.5	2200	$3,400	$1.55	13d	1	0.88mi
8008 Woodyard Rd Clinton, MD	4.0	3.5	1602	$3,000	$1.87	19d	1	1.18mi
8801 Dangerfield Ct Clinton, MD	5.0	2.5	2101	$4,000	$1.90	19d	1	1.43mi
8801 Dangerfield Ct Clinton, MD	5.0	3.0	2101	$4,000	$1.90	6d	1	1.43mi
9743 Quiet Brook Ln Clinton, MD	4.0	2.5	1616	$3,000	$1.86	0d	1	1.48mi
9511 Pin Oak St Clinton, MD	5.0	3.0	2700	$3,500	$1.30	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $399,000 Pending 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-03-10
   listed $399,000 Active 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This home features an open floor plan with spacious living room, dining room, and family room areas, creating a flexible layout for everyday living and entertaining. The main level includes a convenient half bath, and the basement provides additional space ready for your ideas. Situated on a large lot, this property offers great potential for buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Ideally located near shopping, dining, parks, and major commuter routes. Just minutes from National Harbor, MGM National Harbor, Tanger Outlets, and Joint Base Andrews, offering easy access to more entertainment, retail, and employment centers. “Chase Employees: Please see the Chase Acknowledgement for restrictions. Buyer must sign at offer/contract”. All offers must be submitted by the buyer’s agent using the online offer management system. Access the system via HUBZU website.

8. 1992-12-31
   soldstatus $2,027,586

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,764
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,651
• − Management: −$3,651
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$3,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $4,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Clinton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #15951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clinton, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 37,464
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,464
• Household income: $126,196
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 334.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% White 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.23%
• Current HPI: 251.6263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-80.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $399,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $2,027,586 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,764 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.