Davis Plan · Josephine, TX 75135

$230,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 288 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Davis floorplan built at Riverfield in Josephine, TX! This Express Series home plan offers an exceptional blend of style and functionality, designed to meet the demands of modern lifestyles. The custom, architecturally designed elevation, complemented by divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, creates a striking visual appeal. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated front door, inviting you into a world of comfort. Inside, a welcoming foyer seamlessly flows into the open concept living spaces. The kitchen, a focal point of the home, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, elegant granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and spacious pantry provide ample storage and functionality. The primary bedroom, designed for relaxation, includes an adjoining bathroom that simplifies daily routines. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, ensures both comfort and convenience. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and plush ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a warm and inviting atmosphere. This plan is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 30 inch cabinets
• Hidden hinges

Tags

• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• FRONT-FACING GARAGE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• 30 INCH CABINETS
• HIDDEN HINGES

🏗️ New construction. The $230,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,930.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,729 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,930
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -13.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Rock Point Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+0%)	1mo	$250,990	$170	70
505 Lansdowne Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+6%)	0mo	$259,645	$166	67
1200 Riverbrook Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+10%)	1mo	$253,490	$157	66
1116 Riverbrook Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+6%)	2mo	$253,490	$162	66
513 Barlow Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+8%)	0mo	$257,490	$163	66
705 Brook Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+10%)	1mo	$258,495	$160	64
1308 Brook Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$222,990	$152	63
1113 Southfield Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	1mo	$224,990	$157	60
1160 Northfield Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	2mo	$220,990	$154	57
412 Rock Point Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-12%)	2mo	$271,990	$210	50
1105 Southfield Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-13%)	1mo	$212,990	$166	42
1152 Northfield Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-13%)	1mo	$203,745	$159	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,861
• Equity at exit: $39,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-88,331
• Equity at exit: $23,166

Cash invested: $75,021 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $271,898 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 147 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,019/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $214,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-183	-5% $-276	+0% $-369	+5% $-461	+10% $-554
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-443	+0% $-369	+5% $-294	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-300	base $-369	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,983
• Closing costs: $8,038
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,900	$1.28	2d	1	0.10mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	38d	1	0.10mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	68d	1	0.17mi
217 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,150	$1.45	23d	1	0.19mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	46d	1	0.28mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,195	$1.36	43d	1	0.28mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	7d	1	0.30mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	0d	1	0.30mi
1116 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,900	$1.21	0d	1	0.30mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	1d	1	0.32mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	0d	1	0.32mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	30d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	7d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	12d	1	0.68mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	20d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	0d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	32d	1	0.70mi
1117 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	0.70mi
1117 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	16d	1	0.70mi
1309 Brook LN Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,675	$1.31	0d	1	0.72mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	59d	1	0.73mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	50d	1	0.73mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	50d	1	0.74mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	59d	1	0.74mi
1177 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	93d	1	0.74mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	59d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	61d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	7d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	64d	1	0.75mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	0d	1	0.75mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	0d	1	0.75mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	4d	1	0.75mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	93d	1	0.76mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	59d	1	0.79mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	61d	1	0.79mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	0.99mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	1.04mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $230,990 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $230,990 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $230,990 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $230,990 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $230,990 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $230,990 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $230,990 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $230,990 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $230,990 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $230,990 Active 269 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 267 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 266 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $230,990 Active 265 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $230,990 Active 264 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $230,990 Active 263 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 262 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 261 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 260 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $230,990 Active 259 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $230,990 Active 258 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $230,990 Active 256 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $230,990 Active 255 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $230,990 Active 254 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $230,990 Active 253 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $230,990 Active 252 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $230,990 Active 251 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $230,990 Active 250 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $230,990 Active 249 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $227,990 Active 249 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $227,990 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $227,990 Active 247 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $227,990 Active 245 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $227,990 Active 243 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $227,990 Active 241 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $227,990 Active 240 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $227,990 Active 237 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $227,990 Active 236 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $227,990 Active 235 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $227,990 Active 234 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $227,990 Active 232 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $227,990 Active 231 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $227,990 Active 228 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $227,990 Active 227 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,990 Active 226 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,990 Active 223 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,990 Active 222 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,008
• − Property taxes: −$4,019
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$7,794
• Taxable loss: −$9,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,350–$22,050 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Josephine, TX, offers a good condition with a good ROI potential through minor updates and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can be a quick, low-cost improvement. ↑
• Both install smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale update countertops — Granite or quartz countertops are desirable and can increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental install smart thermostat — Attracts renters who value energy efficiency and smart home technology. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $227,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $222,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Listed $262,490 Zillow