Ridgeland Plan · Bastrop, TX 78602

$239,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,149.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mina El (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 785 students, 55% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1072 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,631 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,149
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -12.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Sunfish Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	1mo	$259,900	$179	93
113 Magnum Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-0%)	10mo	$275,000	$193	68
206 Mossberg Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-5%)	16mo	$299,000	$220	68
1133 Largemouth Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	3mo	$220,950	$180	64
1106 Golden Shiner Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	23mo	$229,990	$159	64
110 Pheasant Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	14mo	$310,000	$217	63
100 Javelina Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+3%)	3mo	$284,900	$193	59
1206 Smallmouth Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	16mo	$275,000	$224	58
302 Bass Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (+14%)	22mo	$269,990	$166	50
216 Pheasant Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	23mo	$269,900	$189	50
219 N Hunting Lodge Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,634 (+14%)	15mo	$334,000	$204	42
212 Pack Horse Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+14%)	15mo	$335,000	$206	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-72,964
• Equity at exit: $41,026

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-114,769
• Equity at exit: $23,790

Cash invested: $77,042 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78602

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1072
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,443
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,127/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,407

Max offer price $223,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-261	+0% $-356	+5% $-451	+10% $-546
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-433	+0% $-356	+5% $-279	+10% $-201
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-286	base $-356	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,787
• Closing costs: $8,254
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Smallmouth Rd Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	19d	1	0.07mi
1232 Cattail Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	19d	1	0.07mi
1232 Cattail Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	16d	1	0.07mi
309 Bullhead Rd Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,995	$1.18	45d	1	0.08mi
418 Paddlefish Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	16d	1	0.17mi
418 Paddlefish Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	19d	1	0.17mi
428 Bass Dr Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,999	$1.18	12d	1	0.21mi
1145 Catfish Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,790	$1.19	19d	1	0.26mi
1127 Catfish Ln Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,750	$1.08	13d	1	0.28mi
1123 Catfish Ln Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,995	$1.23	14d	1	0.28mi
729 Aster Pl Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,950	$1.27	45d	1	0.76mi
307 Wild Cat Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$1,950	$1.06	45d	1	0.79mi
103 Hamilton Pool Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,995	$1.54	0d	1	0.87mi
211 Hamilton Pool Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,050	$1.38	6d	1	0.87mi
304 Trophy Ct Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,150	$1.19	45d	1	0.88mi
304 Trophy Ct Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,150	$1.19	14d	1	0.88mi
223 Nicole Way Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,800	$1.37	6d	1	0.88mi
233 Baron Creek Trl Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,100	$1.34	16d	1	0.89mi
302 Cold Spring Loop Unit 1 Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$2,099	$1.31	0d	1	0.95mi
204 Cold Spring Loop Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	1.01mi
945 Blakey Ln Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,383	$2.07	0d	64	1.03mi
201 Watercourse Way Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,900	$1.19	0d	1	1.05mi
110 Watercourse Way Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,100	$1.22	6d	1	1.07mi
120 Trailside Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,890	$1.23	45d	1	1.08mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	25d	1	1.11mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi
114 Mercer St Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,100	$1.24	45d	1	1.12mi
117 Calm Water Loop Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	45d	1	1.14mi
112 Rainmaker Cv Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1868	$2,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.16mi
114 Clear Water Pass Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,200	$1.28	16d	1	1.29mi
151 Puerto Plata Ave Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,190	$1.98	0d	12	1.34mi
210 Punta Cana St Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,200	$1.42	4d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 935 DOM
15. 2024-03-12
    price $239,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

16. 2024-03-02
    price $278,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

17. 2023-11-08
    listed $276,990 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,413
• − Property taxes: −$4,127
• − Insurance: −$1,376
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$8,004
• Taxable loss: −$9,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or renter looking for a move-in-ready property with the potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring to hardwood or tile — Improves the aesthetic and functionality of the living areas.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can attract eco-conscious buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring to hardwood or tile — Improves the aesthetic and functionality of the living areas. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can attract eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #947
• US rank: #16846

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bastrop, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 38,190
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,190
• Household income: $89,968
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.68%
• Current HPI: 247.1145
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $276,990 Zillow