312-314 Chili Ave · Rochester, NY 14611

$174,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,002 sqft · Townhouse public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1900 7,500 sqft lot Est $165k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this second chance. This is a beautiful, huge, multi-family - built as a true duplex! The massive square footage allows for well-sized bedrooms, separate dining rooms and living rooms in both units. Between the two units there is a brick dividing wall which will keep tenants, or owner occupants, happy with the excellent noise cancellation. Separate basements means separate laundry, which everybody loves! Both units have newer paint, 314 has new vinyl flooring throughout most of the unit.

Key facts

• Separate basements
• Brick dividing wall
• True duplex

Tags

• TRUE DUPLEX
• BRICK DIVIDING WALL
• SEPARATE BASEMENTS
• NEW VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,067/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,276 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,110
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312-314 Chili Ave	0.00mi	6/2.0	3,002 (0%)	0mo	$164,777	$55	100
163-165 Warwick Ave	0.24mi	6/2.0	3,051 (+2%)	1mo	$75,000	$25	86
184 Warwick Ave	0.27mi	6/2.0	2,838 (-6%)	14mo	$178,000	$63	67
104 Hobart St	0.15mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,637 (-12%)	4mo	$149,900	$57	64
65-67 York St	0.47mi	6/2.0	2,817 (-6%)	18mo	$200,000	$71	53
303 West Ave	0.15mi	6/4.0	3,330 (+11%)	20mo	$87,500	$26	50
363 Arnett Blvd	0.40mi	6/2.0	2,624 (-13%)	23mo	$100,000	$38	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.93% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,962
• Equity at exit: $26,613

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $82,434
• Equity at exit: $16,043

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14611

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,765/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 Jay St Rochester, NY	5.0	2.0	2144	$2,000	$0.93	3d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   price $174,900
4. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-04
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-02-24
   listed $172,900 Active
7. 2015-04-22
   soldstatus $59,900
8. 2015-02-16
   listed $64,900
9. 2001-12-14
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,765 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,765
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $3,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$794
• After-tax cash flow: $5,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,145
• Household income: $31,376
• Rent vs Own: 64.5% rent · 35.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2168.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Current HPI: 262.1549
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $174,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $172,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2015-02-16 Listed $64,900 UNYREIS
• 2001-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,765 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.