Bartik Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$389,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily · 319 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home features two peaceful bedrooms with a convenient hall bathroom situated to the side of the foyer, while a third bedroom is right around the corner. Further down the foyer is a modern kitchen that melds into the dining room and a spacious family room. Through glass sliders is a large covered patio for outdoor entertainment. In a rear corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Large covered patio

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• TRANQUIL OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $389,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $429,187.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,316/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $331,575 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,187
• List price: $389,999
• Delta: -9.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4761 Espiritu Way	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,933 (+3%)	1mo	$435,000	$225	95
4758 Espiritu Way	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,933 (+3%)	5mo	$420,000	$217	91
4149 Madison St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,959 (+4%)	3mo	$399,000	$204	73
4450 Steinbeck Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-7%)	6mo	$459,000	$261	64
5069 Arancia Ln	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,903 (+1%)	4mo	$410,000	$215	62
4557 Sophia Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,726 (-8%)	1mo	$405,929	$235	58
4859 Frattina St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,929 (+2%)	4mo	$350,000	$181	55
4969 Renzo Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,726 (-8%)	4mo	$395,000	$229	53
5028 Arancia Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,717 (-9%)	2mo	$378,500	$220	51
4250 Annapolis Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-10%)	3mo	$415,000	$245	46
4228 Traditions Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (+9%)	5mo	$430,000	$209	44
5050 Trevi Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,104 (+12%)	3mo	$478,000	$227	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-55,439
• Equity at exit: $102,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-43,179
• Equity at exit: $106,902

Cash invested: $120,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 74 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $438,695 ($226/sqft)
• Median days on market: 120 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,251
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$536 /mo · $6,438/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,754

Max offer price $379,037

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-198	+0% $-347	+5% $-495	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-478	+0% $-347	+5% $-216	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-237	base $-347	+0.5pp $-458	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,297
• Closing costs: $12,876
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4591 Lamaida Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2470	$3,000	$1.21	10d	1	0.30mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	164d	1	0.35mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,600	$1.71	46d	1	0.35mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	51d	1	0.35mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,600	$1.71	10d	1	0.35mi
4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,900	$1.74	29d	1	0.44mi
4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,900	$1.74	10d	1	0.44mi
4905 Lowell Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,550	$1.34	10d	1	0.48mi
4905 Lowell Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,550	$1.34	37d	1	0.48mi
4383 Hudson Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,500	$1.68	10d	1	0.54mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,400	$1.57	41d	1	0.55mi
4819 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.5	1978	$3,200	$1.62	51d	1	0.55mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	154d	1	0.57mi
4843 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2588	$3,300	$1.28	164d	1	0.63mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,150	$1.85	10d	1	0.63mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,150	$1.85	51d	1	0.63mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	164d	1	0.67mi
4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	10d	1	0.69mi
4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	16d	1	0.69mi
4869 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1903	$2,600	$1.37	7d	1	0.72mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	164d	1	0.74mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4210 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,750	$1.68	51d	1	0.75mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	151d	1	0.75mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	164d	1	0.77mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	10d	1	0.80mi
5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1726	$2,700	$1.56	35d	1	0.85mi
5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1726	$2,700	$1.56	10d	1	0.85mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	51d	1	0.85mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	10d	1	0.85mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	164d	1	0.86mi
5820 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2611	$2,700	$1.03	8d	1	0.86mi
5151 Monza Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$2,900	$1.38	44d	1	0.87mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	162d	1	0.92mi
5081 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2256	$3,100	$1.37	0d	1	0.92mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2256	$3,000	$1.33	10d	1	0.92mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	6d	1	0.93mi
5191 Genoa St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$3,500	$1.81	49d	1	0.93mi
5265 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1726	$2,300	$1.33	9d	1	0.95mi
5253 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$2,400	$1.24	51d	1	0.98mi
5253 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$2,495	$1.29	44d	1	0.98mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4659 Espiritu Way, Ave Maria, FL 34142
• Financial info: Listing is active with list price $399,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Bartik plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,884 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Bartik)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $389,999 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $389,999 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   days on market $389,999 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $389,999 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $389,999 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $389,999 Active 313 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $389,999 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $389,999 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $389,999 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $389,999 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $389,999 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $389,999 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $389,999 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $389,999 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $389,999 Active 304 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $389,999 Active 303 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $389,999 Active 302 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $389,999 Active 301 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $389,999 Active 300 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $389,999 Active 299 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $389,999 Active 298 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $389,999 Active 297 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $389,999 Active 296 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $389,999 Active 295 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $389,999 Active 294 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $389,999 Active 293 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $389,999 Active 292 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $389,999 Active 291 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $389,999 Active 290 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $389,999 Active 289 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $389,999 Active 288 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $389,999 Active 287 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $389,999 Active 286 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $389,999 Active 285 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $389,999 Active 284 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $389,999 Active 283 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $389,999 Active 282 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $389,999 Active 281 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $389,999 Active 279 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $389,999 Active 278 DOM
41. 2026-09-26
    days on market $389,999 Active 276 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $389,999 Active 275 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $389,999 Active 274 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $389,999 Active 273 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $389,999 Active 272 DOM
46. 2026-09-20
    days on market $389,999 Active 270 DOM
47. 2026-09-18
    days on market $389,999 Active 268 DOM
48. 2026-09-17
    days on market $389,999 Active 267 DOM
49. 2026-09-16
    days on market $389,999 Active 266 DOM
50. 2026-09-15
    days on market $389,999 Active 265 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,041
• − Property taxes: −$6,438
• − Insurance: −$2,146
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,183
• − Management: −$3,183
• − Depreciation: −$12,485
• Taxable loss: −$11,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,420–$28,260 screening

This single-story home features a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a spacious living area. The exterior is well-maintained, and the interior is in good condition with neutral paint and tile flooring. Minor updates, such as painting the exterior and replacing the kitchen faucet, can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4659 Espiritu Way, Ave Maria, FL 34142
• Financial info: Listing is active with list price $399,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Bartik plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,884 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Bartik)