51 Aspen Ln · Woodridge, NY 12789

$410,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1971 0.34 ac lot Est $303k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three bedroom well maintained raised ranch is located on a dead end quiet street. It has hardwood floors, and new tile in kitchen. Large decking surrrounds the front and side of house partially allowing privacy while sitting on the deck. The finished room in the lower level is all pine. There are two possible additional rooms in the lower level. This home also has kerosene monitors on both floors. Please PRESENT ALL OFFERS. Electric: Circuit Breaker, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Family Room, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Bonus rooms
• Turn key airbnb

Tags

• RENOVATED SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• ENTERTAINMENT FAMILY ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• BONUS ROOMS
• TURN KEY AIRBNB
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Finished basement; Crawl attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-745 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#934 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $410k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $247,121 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,784
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Zematt Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,680 (-8%)	12mo	$380,000	$226	48
52 Edelweiss Dr	0.71mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,704 (-7%)	7mo	$210,000	$123	43
31 Edelweiss Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,020 (+11%)	5mo	$295,000	$146	40
4 Berne Ct	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (-6%)	20mo	$345,000	$200	34
18 Lausanne Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+10%)	17mo	$335,000	$166	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $175,778
• Equity at exit: $369,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $554,879
• Equity at exit: $796,540

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12789

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,520/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,415

Max offer price $278,329

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Meadowlark Ln Unit 1 Woodridge, NY	3.0	4.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	14d	1	0.70mi
50 Meadowlark Ln Woodridge, NY	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $410,000 Active
17. 2008-10-10
    soldstatus $133,900 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    This three bedroom well maintained raised ranch is located on a dead end quiet street. It has hardwood floors, and new tile in kitchen. Large decking surrrounds the front and side of house partially allowing privacy while sitting on the deck. The finished room in the lower level is all pine. There are two possible additional rooms in the lower level. This home also has kerosene monitors on both floors. Please PRESENT ALL OFFERS. Electric: Circuit Breaker, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Family Room, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

18. 2008-02-08
    listed $149,900 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    This three bedroom well maintained raised ranch is located on a dead end quiet street. It has hardwood floors, and new tile in kitchen. Large decking surrrounds the front and side of house partially allowing privacy while sitting on the deck. The finished room in the lower level is all pine. There are two possible additional rooms in the lower level. This home also has kerosene monitors on both floors. Please PRESENT ALL OFFERS. Electric: Circuit Breaker, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Family Room, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,725 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,204/yr (+$100/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,520
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$16,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,973
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #934
• US rank: #18167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,654
• Population (ZIP): 2,654

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 25% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 22% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 455.1244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+173.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $410,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-10 Sold (MLS) $133,900 HGMLS
• 2008-02-08 Listed $149,900 HGMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,520 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.