241 Waterway Ct · Lapeer, MI 48446

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other · 59 Days on market

Built 2019 4,356 sqft lot $93/sqft · 13% below area Est $144k · 13% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in a peaceful, well-kept community designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to find a bright, open layout with spacious living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in this quiet neighborhood, featuring access to a community pool, clubhouse, and scenic catch-and-release ponds - ideal for fishing and outdoor enjoyment. This home offers a perfect blend of low-maintenance living and community amenities, all in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Move-in ready and waiting for you! Lot rent is $465 per month, buyers(s) must be approved by the community administrator.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Desirable location

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• SCENIC CATCH-AND-RELEASE PONDS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Lapeer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#231 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.45%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,767
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -13.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,751
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $36,404
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $125,000 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   price $125,000 835-char remark

   Show marketing remark (835 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in a peaceful, well-kept community designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to find a bright, open layout with spacious living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in this quiet neighborhood, featuring access to a community pool, clubhouse, and scenic catch-and-release ponds - ideal for fishing and outdoor enjoyment. This home offers a perfect blend of low-maintenance living and community amenities, all in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Move-in ready and waiting for you! Lot rent is $465 per month, buyers(s) must be approved by the community administrator.

3. 2026-05-06
   price $125,000 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in a peaceful, well-kept community designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to find a bright, open layout with spacious living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in this quiet neighborhood, featuring access to a community pool, clubhouse, and scenic catch-and-release ponds—ideal for fishing and outdoor enjoyment. This home offers a perfect blend of low-maintenance living and community amenities, all in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Move-in ready and waiting for you! Lot rent is $465 per month, buyers(s) must be approved by the community administrator.

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $130,000 Active 835-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in a peaceful, well-kept community designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to find a bright, open layout with spacious living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in this quiet neighborhood, featuring access to a community pool, clubhouse, and scenic catch-and-release ponds—ideal for fishing and outdoor enjoyment. This home offers a perfect blend of low-maintenance living and community amenities, all in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Move-in ready and waiting for you! Lot rent is $465 per month, buyers(s) must be approved by the community administrator.

5. 2026-04-01
   listed $130,000 Active 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in a peaceful, well-kept community designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to find a bright, open layout with spacious living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in this quiet neighborhood, featuring access to a community pool, clubhouse, and scenic catch-and-release ponds—ideal for fishing and outdoor enjoyment. This home offers a perfect blend of low-maintenance living and community amenities, all in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Move-in ready and waiting for you! Lot rent is $465 per month, buyers(s) must be approved by the community administrator.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $4,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lapeer

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #5855

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• City population: 30,581
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · -68.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.