218 Locust St · Rural Valley, PA 16249

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1976 0.38 ac lot $110/sqft · 13% below area Est $155k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath ranch nestled in a quiet welcoming community. A classic brick entrance adds curb appeal as you step inside to a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The home features a full basement complete with a cozy firelace -perfect for those cold months while central air keeps you comfortable all summer long. A spacious gathering room ideal for relaxing completed with Sliding glass doors lead you out to the back yard, creating an easy flow, Make your move in easier with a 1 car garage and included appliances. With a little TLC this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Sliding glass doors
• Full basement

Tags

• BRICK ENTRANCE
• FULL BASEMENT
• CENTRAL AIR
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#635 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Armstrong SD (rural): math 38% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #233 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shannock Valley El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 336 students, 100% FRL); West Hills Intermediate Sch (math 37% / reading 59%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 475 students, 100% FRL); West Shamokin Jshs (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #178 of 437 statewide, top 42%, 524 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 37% district-wide (63 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Armstrong County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $114 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-819 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Armstrong County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $135k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $102,580 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,022
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -12.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 W 1st St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	4mo	$110,000	$86	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-19,313
• Equity at exit: $35,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-17,948
• Equity at exit: $39,118

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16249

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,409/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $102,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-145	+0% $-183	+5% $-221	+10% $-259
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-226	+0% $-183	+5% $-140	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-149	base $-183	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $134,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    status Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath ranch nestled in a quiet welcoming community. A classic brick entrance adds curb appeal as you step inside to a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The home features a full basement complete with a cozy firelace -perfect for those cold months while central air keeps you comfortable all summer long. A spacious gathering room ideal for relaxing completed with Sliding glass doors lead you out to the back yard, creating an easy flow, Make your move in easier with a 1 car garage and included appliances. With a little TLC this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don't miss this opportunity.

18. 2026-04-15
    historical Contingent 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath ranch nestled in a quiet welcoming community. A classic brick entrance adds curb appeal as you step inside to a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The home features a full basement complete with a cozy firelace -perfect for those cold months while central air keeps you comfortable all summer long. A spacious gathering room ideal for relaxing completed with Sliding glass doors lead you out to the back yard, creating an easy flow, Make your move in easier with a 1 car garage and included appliances. With a little TLC this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don't miss this opportunity.

19. 2026-03-19
    listed $139,900 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath ranch nestled in a quiet welcoming community. A classic brick entrance adds curb appeal as you step inside to a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The home features a full basement complete with a cozy firelace -perfect for those cold months while central air keeps you comfortable all summer long. A spacious gathering room ideal for relaxing completed with Sliding glass doors lead you out to the back yard, creating an easy flow, Make your move in easier with a 1 car garage and included appliances. With a little TLC this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don't miss this opportunity.

20. 1990-06-08
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,409 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,409 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,409
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$4,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Armstrong SD
• NCES district ID: 4202590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,333
• Composite: 40.41/100
• National rank: #3729
• State rank: #233 of 539 in PA

Livability — Rural Valley

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #6185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rural Valley, PA
• Population (ZIP): 1,757

Population outlook (Armstrong County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,513 people
• By 2030: 59,579 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 52,890 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 45,904 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 32,023 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 20,415 · -67.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Armstrong

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: -24.6pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+52.3 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+37.2 2008: R+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 145.4823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $139,900 West Penn MLS
• 1990-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,409 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.