441 Valley View Rd · Sidney, NY 13733

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1964 2.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spanning over two acres, this charming property is being offered for the first time in over thirty years. Over 1100 square feet, with three beds and a full bath on the main floor, and an additional bedroom area in the basement which offers a one car garage under the home leading out onto a paved driveway. Newer updates include a mini split which comfortably heats in the winter months and maintains a nice cool temperature when the sun comes back out in the Summer. A new well 8 years ago, metal roof, and efficient utility bill are also worth noting. Large living room area gives way to a dining room with an open concept kitchen. Outside, a large covered patio for hosting bbq's or relaxing whil

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large covered patio
• Mini split

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• MINI SPLIT
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• IN GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.9% in Sidney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Sidney Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #462 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $80,471
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $229,271
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13733

• Home prices YoY: 13.9%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5355 Main St Sidney, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-16
   listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,693 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $1,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sidney Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,110
• Composite: 38.29/100
• National rank: #4232
• State rank: #462 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sidney

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,265

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.93%
• Current HPI: 287.0519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.