19327 Lawrence 1210 · Aurora, MO 65605

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition 0.92 ac lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE Reduction-$10,000--2 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath totally redone Mobile that has been affixed to the property as Real Estate. This property is just minutes North and East of Aurora. New Heat & Air Conditioning, along with all New Stainless-Steel Appliances that stay. Well is located on this property and has two other users, with a shared well agreement.

Key facts

• Air conditioning
• New heat
• 0.92 acre lot

Tags

• NEW HEAT
• AIR CONDITIONING
• NEW STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#710 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Aurora R-VIII (town): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #244 of 324 in MO (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,533 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,900
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19327 Lawrence 1210	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,088 (0%)	0mo	$119,900	$110	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,406
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,554
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65605

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   PRICE Reduction-$10,000--2 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath totally redone Mobile that has been affixed to the property as Real Estate. This property is just minutes North and East of Aurora. New Heat & Air Conditioning, along with all New Stainless-Steel Appliances that stay. Well is located on this property and has two other users, with a shared well agreement.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $119,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   PRICE Reduction-$10,000--2 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath totally redone Mobile that has been affixed to the property as Real Estate. This property is just minutes North and East of Aurora. New Heat & Air Conditioning, along with all New Stainless-Steel Appliances that stay. Well is located on this property and has two other users, with a shared well agreement.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $129,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   PRICE Reduction-$10,000--2 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath totally redone Mobile that has been affixed to the property as Real Estate. This property is just minutes North and East of Aurora. New Heat & Air Conditioning, along with all New Stainless-Steel Appliances that stay. Well is located on this property and has two other users, with a shared well agreement.

4. 2026-03-04
   listed $139,900 Active 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   PRICE Reduction-$10,000--2 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath totally redone Mobile that has been affixed to the property as Real Estate. This property is just minutes North and East of Aurora. New Heat & Air Conditioning, along with all New Stainless-Steel Appliances that stay. Well is located on this property and has two other users, with a shared well agreement.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 242.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $1,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with recent renovations, including new heat and air conditioning and stainless steel appliances. It is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Add a small front porch or landscaping feature — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or landscaping feature — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2904020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,036
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6883
• State rank: #244 of 324 in MO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #22927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,611

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,900 SOMO
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $129,900 SOMO
• 2026-03-04 Listed $139,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.