9306 Grady St · Houston, TX 77016

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1949 0.33 ac lot $194/sqft · 20% above area Est $198k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,200 square feet (0.33 acre)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (living area listed as 1,228); Built in 1949
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,024 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,721
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 0.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9401 Heatherside St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	976 (-5%)	4mo	$89,000	$91	76
5109 Fitch St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+3%)	2mo	$180,000	$170	76
5118 Firnat St	0.27mi	3/1.0	944 (-8%)	2mo	$95,000	$101	72
8708 Wileyvale Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+1%)	1mo	$204,250	$197	69
9009 Compton St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+1%)	5mo	$130,000	$125	69
5713 Rietta St	0.30mi	3/2.0	960 (-7%)	4mo	$204,500	$213	68
5715 Rietta St	0.30mi	3/2.0	960 (-7%)	7mo	$204,500	$213	65
5107 Firnat St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+6%)	14mo	$210,000	$193	61
9818 Degas Ln	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,160 (+13%)	4mo	$190,000	$164	48
4915 Cruse Rd	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,096 (+7%)	4mo	$172,500	$157	48
5001 Keeland St	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,084 (+5%)	16mo	$157,000	$145	38
4530 Firnat St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,169 (+14%)	2mo	$99,000	$85	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $77,808
• Equity at exit: $160,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $225,330
• Equity at exit: $326,548

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,258/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $175,367

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-77	+0% $-134	+5% $-190	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-197	+0% $-134	+5% $-71	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-83	base $-134	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	45d	1	0.12mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.48mi
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	1d	1	0.71mi
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	45d	1	0.71mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	45d	1	0.89mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	0.91mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	0.91mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	0.91mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.94mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	0.94mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	45d	1	0.97mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	26d	1	1.06mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	45d	1	1.07mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	1.08mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.11mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	45d	1	1.12mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	7d	1	1.14mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	26d	1	1.14mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	1.14mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.14mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	1.21mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.21mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	1.26mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	1.28mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	9d	1	1.36mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	17d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-04-12
    historical
14. 2026-04-12
    listed $199,000 Active
15. 2026-02-20
    price $199,900
16. 2026-02-10
    listed $210,000 Active
17. 2016-11-10
    soldstatus
18. 1988-06-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,258 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,258
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,258 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.