4412 Osborne St · Greenville, TX 75401

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,105 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot $149/sqft · 14% below area Est $193k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 169 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, commute F.
• Greenville ISD (town): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #743 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 396 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,765
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -14.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Lake St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-6%)	20mo	$109,000	$105	49
4108 Harris St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-11%)	22mo	$95,000	$96	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,713
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,195
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75401

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,269/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,422

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 County Road 1058 Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	1d	1	0.33mi
4909 Delano St Greenville, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$1,955	$1.21	1d	1	0.89mi
3430 Sockwell Blvd Greenville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$960	$1.18	2d	2	0.92mi
3430 Sockwell Blvd Unit 3462 Greenville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$960	$1.13	24d	1	0.92mi
1712 Manor Garden Curv Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,425	$1.29	44d	1	0.97mi
1716 Manor Garden Curv Unit 75401 Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,525	$1.38	24d	1	0.99mi
902 Clark St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	1.04mi
1902 Oliver St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,700	$1.23	2d	1	1.07mi
1711 Langford St Greenville, TX	3.0	1.5	1274	$1,495	$1.17	22d	1	1.09mi
1711 Langford St Greenville, TX	3.0	1.5	1274	$1,495	$1.17	24d	1	1.09mi
3333 Dalton St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,635	$1.10	7d	1	1.09mi
3333 Dalton St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,635	$1.10	24d	1	1.09mi
3333 Dalton St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,635	$1.10	5d	1	1.09mi
1906 Oliver St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	2d	1	1.09mi
3840 McDougal St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	7d	1	1.11mi
2006 Morgan St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,450	$1.19	44d	1	1.15mi
2123 Langford St Greenville, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$1,199	$1.71	44d	1	1.28mi
4709 Henry St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,550	$1.19	7d	1	1.28mi
3604 Bourland St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,360	$1.32	44d	1	1.33mi
2225 College St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	24d	1	1.33mi
3307 Polk St Unit A Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,550	$1.20	17d	1	1.34mi
3305 Stevens St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1069	$1,475	$1.38	44d	1	1.37mi
3305 Stevens St Unit B Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1069	$1,350	$1.26	44d	1	1.37mi
3305 Stevens St Unit A Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1069	$1,300	$1.22	44d	1	1.37mi
2406 Beecha St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,575	$1.25	44d	1	1.37mi
1707 Wright St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,725	$1.23	5d	1	1.41mi
1901 Wright St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,575	$1.25	24d	1	1.49mi
3605 Eutopia St Greenville, TX	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,450	$1.25	44d	1	1.49mi
4506 Pickett St Greenville, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,395	$1.36	19d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2025-12-22
   listed $165,000 Active
10. 2010-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,269 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$63/mo · 33.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,269
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $1,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,374
• Composite: 19.56/100
• National rank: #8759
• State rank: #743 of 826 in TX

Livability — Greenville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2719

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenville, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 42,767
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,669
• Household income: $59,908
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 638.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.45%
• Current HPI: 339.0287
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2010-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,269 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.