24701 Raymond Way #252 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1977 $132/sqft · at area comps Est $227k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Park. Triple Wide. .. On the Boardwalk! Nice open floor plan w/ custom features. Great 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath. Entertain in huge familyroom with wetbar & built-in bookcases. Sunkissed living room. Lovely dining room with built-in china cabinet! Circular eat-in kitcen w/ lots of storage. Private master suite w/ sunken tub + shower; large walk-in closet! Relax on lovely porch. Nice, easy to maintain landscaping. 2 storage sheds. Central A/C. This is one of the largest homes in the park. .. call now to see!!

Key facts

• Circular kitchen
• Newer dishwasher
• Cooktop

Tags

• CIRCULAR KITCHEN
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• DOUBLE OVEN
• COOKTOP
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DOUBLE DOORS IN DEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Street lighting; Land lease in place ($1,300 monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Prothero park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Entry on level 1; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 24' x 61'; Facing/directions: Cross Streets: El Toro Road
• Construction: Seller-provided year built; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Shed; Front yard; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (details: see remarks)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.1% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $235k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.93%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,598
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 3.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24701 Raymond Way #230	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	7mo	$230,000	$137	84
24701 Raymond Way #195	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,760 (-1%)	12mo	$247,500	$141	81
24701 Raymond Way #170	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	9mo	$230,000	$133	80
24701 Raymond Way #34	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,656 (-7%)	10mo	$210,000	$127	80
24701 Raymond Way #74	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-0%)	2mo	$319,000	$180	78
24701 Raymond Ave #120	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-10%)	2mo	$375,000	$233	70
24921 Muirlands Blvd #98	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,776 (-0%)	10mo	$200,000	$113	65
24701 Raymond Way #98	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (+4%)	11mo	$255,000	$137	64
24701 Raymond Way #81	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (-7%)	6mo	$333,000	$201	63
24921 Muirlands blvd #78	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,570 (-12%)	3mo	$224,000	$143	55
24921 Muirlands Blvd #188	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,600 (-10%)	13mo	$299,000	$187	51
24921 Muirlands Blvd #240	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,944 (+9%)	10mo	$189,000	$97	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $40,249
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $131,095
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $1,257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24391 Avenida de la Carlota Laguna Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,965	$4.14	1d	18	0.57mi
158 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	44d	1	0.84mi
24299 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$3,770	$2.80	22d	7	0.89mi
205 Avenida Majorca Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,600	$2.82	44d	1	0.91mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,200	$2.42	19d	1	0.95mi
221 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,200	$2.23	24d	1	0.96mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1305	$4,000	$3.07	44d	1	0.99mi
2037 Via Mariposa E Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,300	$2.49	44d	1	1.06mi
2299 Via Puerta Unit F Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	3.0	1530	$3,500	$2.29	19d	1	1.07mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	44d	1	1.08mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	44d	1	1.08mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	24d	1	1.12mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	44d	1	1.13mi
6 Quinn Way Mission Viejo, CA	3.0	3.5	1716	$4,100	$2.39	21d	1	1.13mi
263 Calle Aragon Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1275	$3,800	$2.98	17d	1	1.14mi
62 Aliso Ridge Loop Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1560	$3,795	$2.43	24d	1	1.15mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	13d	1	1.16mi
2355 Via Mariposa W Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	2.0	1662	$3,500	$2.11	19d	1	1.20mi
2370 Via Mariposa W Unit 3D Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,300	$1.98	19d	1	1.20mi
480 Calle Cadiz Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1324	$3,100	$2.34	44d	1	1.24mi
23151 Los Alisos Blvd Mission Viejo, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$2,654	$2.43	2d	1	1.31mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	44d	1	1.32mi
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,248	$3.22	4d	1	1.34mi
23491 Via San Miguel Aliso Viejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1240	$3,850	$3.10	13d	1	1.42mi
23491 Los Adornos Aliso Viejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,600	$2.88	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $235,000 Active 802-char remark
16. 2005-03-02
    soldstatus $102,000 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    55+ Park. Triple Wide. .. On the Boardwalk! Nice open floor plan w/ custom features. Great 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath. Entertain in huge familyroom with wetbar & built-in bookcases. Sunkissed living room. Lovely dining room with built-in china cabinet! Circular eat-in kitcen w/ lots of storage. Private master suite w/ sunken tub + shower; large walk-in closet! Relax on lovely porch. Nice, easy to maintain landscaping. 2 storage sheds. Central A/C. This is one of the largest homes in the park. .. call now to see!!

17. 2005-01-05
    listed $101,250 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    55+ Park. Triple Wide. .. On the Boardwalk! Nice open floor plan w/ custom features. Great 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath. Entertain in huge familyroom with wetbar & built-in bookcases. Sunkissed living room. Lovely dining room with built-in china cabinet! Circular eat-in kitcen w/ lots of storage. Private master suite w/ sunken tub + shower; large walk-in closet! Relax on lovely porch. Nice, easy to maintain landscaping. 2 storage sheds. Central A/C. This is one of the largest homes in the park. .. call now to see!!

18. 2004-07-16
    historical
19. 2004-04-23
    listed $103,900
20. 2002-10-08
    historical
21. 2002-09-11
    soldstatus $82,500
22. 2002-07-17
    listed $84,900
23. 2002-07-08
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,501
• − Management: −$3,501
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $12,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,895
• After-tax cash flow: $12,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+176.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2005-03-02 Sold (MLS) $102,000 CRMLS
• 2005-01-05 Listed $101,250 CRMLS
• 2004-07-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-04-23 Listed $103,900 CRMLS
• 2002-10-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2002-09-11 Sold (MLS) $82,500 CRMLS
• 2002-07-17 Listed $84,900 CRMLS
• 2002-07-08 Listed $84,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $40 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.