Ashfield Plan · Sedona, AZ 86336

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Manufactured · 418 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Feature-packed home
• Brand new home
• Listed 418 days

Tags

• BRAND NEW HOME
• FEATURE-PACKED HOME
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $159,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Ashfield)
• Exterior features: Located on W Highway 89A

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Ashfield; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $159,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,586.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.4% in Sedona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#55 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Sedona-Oak Creek JUSD #9 (4467) (town): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #197 of 249 in AZ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 418 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 418 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,586
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Sunset Hills Dr #95	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	20mo	$65,000	$45	73
10 Yellow Sky Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+4%)	1mo	$470,000	$333	72
175 Sunset Hills Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,441 (+6%)	21mo	$325,000	$226	70
50 Cindercone Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-6%)	5mo	$245,000	$191	66
118 Cochise	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	18mo	$90,000	$59	57
41 Country Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	5mo	$650,000	$451	54
5 Cindercone Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	7mo	$435,000	$370	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-69,037
• Equity at exit: $45,862

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-103,241
• Equity at exit: $26,594

Cash invested: $86,124 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86336

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,451 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,613
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,614/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,691

Max offer price $280,214

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,896
• Closing costs: $9,228
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 418 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 417 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 416 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 415 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 413 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 412 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 410 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 409 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 408 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 407 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 401 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 400 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 399 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,230
• − Property taxes: −$4,614
• − Insurance: −$1,538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − Depreciation: −$8,948
• Taxable loss: −$7,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedona-Oak Creek JUSD #9 (4467)
• NCES district ID: 0409733
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,988
• Composite: 15.27/100
• National rank: #9332
• State rank: #197 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sedona

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #9645

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C Housing C Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 18,102
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 11,381
• Household income: $68,435
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 239.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.06%
• Current HPI: 408.6459
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B