404 4th Ave · Selma, AL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $916 – $1,700
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +2.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$57,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great home for a Handy Man or Investor. Sold in "AS IS" Condition
Key facts
- 0.23 acre lot
- Parking
- Built 1957
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $57k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($929 rent vs $57k).
- Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 7.5% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 56/100 on livability (#407 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Selma City (town): math 2% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #118 of 129 in AL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Dallas County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 535 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 535 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.63% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.73%
- Cash-on-cash
- 26.55%
- DSCR
- 2.18
- GRM
- 5.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $28,143
- List price
- $57,000
- Delta
- 102.54%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 802 2nd Ave | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 | 1,122 (+0%) | 6mo | $5,750 | $5 | 77 |
| 521 Third Ave | 0.14mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,074 (-4%) | 6mo | $10,000 | $9 | 77 |
| 96 L L Anderson Ave | 0.50mi | 3/1.0 | 1,278 (+14%) | 2mo | $13,000 | $10 | 51 |
| 418 Laurel Ave | 0.49mi | 3/1.0 | 1,223 (+9%) | 14mo | $28,000 | $23 | 51 |
| 1316 Lauderdale St | 0.66mi | 3/— | 1,180 (+5%) | 19mo | $3,000 | $3 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 20.4%
- Equity multiple
- 1.83×
- Total profit
- $13,257
- Equity at exit
- $8,499
- IRR
- 28.6%
- Equity multiple
- 3.54×
- Total profit
- $40,525
- Equity at exit
- $4,928
Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Alabama
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 36701
- Home prices YoY
- -6.3%
- Active inventory
- 104
- Price-to-rent
- 5.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $929 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$299
- Tax from tax record
- −$58 /mo · $698/yr
- Insurance
- −$24
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$195
- Net cashflow
- $353
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $14,250
- Closing costs
- $1,710
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1300 Cloverdale Rd Selma, AL | 2.0–3.0 | 1.5–2.5 | 1204 | $929 | $0.77 | 21d | 1 | 1.23mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $57,000 Active 535 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $57,000 Active 534 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $57,000 Active 533 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $57,000 Active 532 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $57,000 Active 531 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $57,000 Active 529 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $57,000 Active 528 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $57,000 Active 525 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $57,000 Active 524 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $57,000 Active 523 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $57,000 Active 522 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $57,000 Active 519 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $57,000 Active 518 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $57,000 Active 517 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $57,000 Active 516 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $57,000 Active 515 DOM
-
2025-12-23price $57,000 75-char remark
Show marketing remark (75 chars)
Great home for a Handy Man or Investor. Sold in "AS IS" Condition
-
2025-08-12price $62,000 75-char remark
Show marketing remark (75 chars)
Great home for a Handy Man or Investor. Sold in "AS IS" Condition
-
2024-12-31$72,000 Active 75-char remark
Show marketing remark (75 chars)
Great home for a Handy Man or Investor. Sold in "AS IS" Condition
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $698 · $58/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $698 · $58/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,148
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,193
- − Property taxes
- −$698
- − Insurance
- −$285
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$892
- − Management
- −$892
- − Depreciation
- −$1,658
- Taxable income
- $3,530
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$847
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,390/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Selma City
- NCES district ID
- 0102970
- Math proficiency
- 2% ▼ -24.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 23% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $23,380
- Composite
- 9.07/100
- National rank
- #9870
- State rank
- #118 of 129 in AL
Livability — Selma
- Score
- 56/100
- State rank
- #407
- US rank
- #22550
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Selma, AL
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,358
Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 35,464 people
- By 2030
- 32,631 · -8.0%
- By 2040
- 27,246 · -23.2%
- By 2050
- 22,691 · -36.0%
- By 2075
- 14,867 · -58.1%
- By 2100
- 10,285 · -71.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (69%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 69% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 2%
- Common ancestry
- Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 98% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Dallas
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+32.5) · D 65.9% · R 33.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.5pp · 2024: 32.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+32.5 2020: D+37.5 2016: D+37.6 2012: D+39.7 2008: D+34.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -11.98%
- Current HPI
- 176.6034
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.94%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 1 | $8B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 1 | $5B |
|
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Price history
-20.8% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-23 Price Changed $57,000 MAAR
- 2025-08-12 Price Changed $62,000 MAAR
- 2024-12-31 Listed $72,000 MAAR
Property tax history
+10.2%/yrLatest (2023): $698 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…