7 Cascade Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$229,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2008 7,120 sqft lot Est $265k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled amidst the serene woods, this delightful Colonial offers both privacy and tranquility throughout the year. Constructed in 2008, the home comprises 2 spacious bedrooms, and two bathrooms. It features a luminous living and dining area, an efficient kitchen with new countertops, a brand-new well, and an almost-new hot water tank. The property also boasts a charming side porch and a secluded backyard, perfect for relaxation. Conveniently located just minutes from Monroe, Route 17, Woodbury Commons, and Schunnemunk State Park, this home is ideal for either full-time residence or a peaceful weekend getaway.

Key facts

• Brand-new well
• Charming side porch
• Efficient kitchen

Tags

• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• BRAND-NEW WELL
• ALMOST-NEW HOT WATER TANK
• CHARMING SIDE PORCH
• SECLUDED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Electric service: Orange & Rockland; Septic tank sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Steam heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup; Scuttle attic access
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Round Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 653 students, 38% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 16% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Washingtonville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $229k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,759 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,440
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Brookside Trl	0.04mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (0%)	9mo	$265,000	$237	85
15 Arcadian Trl	0.23mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-10%)	0mo	$162,000	$161	67
14 Silver Trl	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,212 (+8%)	9mo	$185,000	$153	66
39 Hillcrest Trl	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-11%)	6mo	$295,000	$295	48
5 Orchard Trl	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	963 (-14%)	6mo	$264,500	$275	46
15 Claremont Trl	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	980 (-12%)	8mo	$265,000	$270	42
13 Pioneer Trl	0.54mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	20mo	$55,000	$46	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,342
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,821
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,238/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	14d	1	0.19mi
357 Mountain Lodge Rd Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	14d	1	0.38mi
66 Higgins Trl Blooming Grove, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	14d	1	0.55mi
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 616-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,238 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,238 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,238
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$532
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+663.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-14 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,090 Public Records
• 1993-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,238 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.