5951 N Chaparral Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1980 1.78 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Investor special with endless potential on 1.777 acres! This 880 sq ft mobile home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is ready for a complete renovation or replacement. The horse-friendly lot provides plenty of space for animals, RVs, toys, workshops, or future improvements. Enjoy peaceful surroundings and beautiful mountain views while creating your own private retreat. Whether you're looking to renovate, invest, or build your dream home, this property offers incredible opportunity and room to grow. Bring your vision and make this property your own! Owner/Agent

Key facts

• Horse friendly lot
• Private retreat
• 1.78 acre lot

Tags

• HORSE FRIENDLY LOT
• BEAUTIFUL MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Faces south; Fixer condition
• Construction: Siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Wire fencing; North/South exposure; Paved road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Tankless water heater; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.7% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $99k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.76%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,360
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6355 N Desert Trail Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0	920 (+4%)	5mo	$66,000	$72	59
5825 N Water Witch Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	2mo	$65,000	$70	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $18,051
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $49,672
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $623	+0% $595	+5% $567	+10% $539
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $535	+0% $595	+5% $655	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $645	-0.5pp $620	base $595	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2026-02-10
    historical
19. 2025-12-05
    listed $99,000 Active
20. 2025-11-05
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,406
• After-tax cash flow: $5,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+98.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $99,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-05 Listed $99,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.