451 W Ten Eyck St · Watertown, NY 13601

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1920 6,399 sqft lot Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

Key facts

• 6,399 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story wood-sided house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Stone foundation; Wood siding; Built as existing (year built details available)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Irregular residential lot (approximately 81 x 79)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer (in basement); Dryer (in basement); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,778 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,000
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Pine St	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	3mo	$196,760	$195	87
467 S Massey St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+6%)	0mo	$207,000	$203	79
273 Mullin St	0.29mi	2/1.0	936 (-2%)	12mo	$145,000	$155	72
516 Dimmick St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	9mo	$185,000	$175	64
1147 Holcomb St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	12mo	$184,000	$177	39
225 Breen Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	908 (-5%)	11mo	$150,000	$165	38
146 Smith St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (+11%)	21mo	$35,000	$33	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-29,482
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,455
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,472/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $146,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-82	+0% $-130	+5% $-178	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-178	+0% $-130	+5% $-83	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-87	base $-130	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.53mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.59mi
152 Court St Unit 5 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	44d	1	0.78mi
334 Clay St Unit 4 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,070	$1.53	44d	1	0.88mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,304	$0.91	44d	9	0.97mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.97mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	1.29mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.35mi
2240 Kristina Park Watertown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,432	$1.34	44d	5	1.39mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   price $169,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus $153,500
19. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus $153,500 Closed Sale or Rented 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

20. 2022-03-10
    status Pending Sale 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

21. 2022-01-28
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

22. 2022-01-20
    price $154,900 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

23. 2022-01-12
    listed $159,900 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Light and bright 3 bedroom home with so many updates! New roof, new interior and exterior paint, newer windows, new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, newer furnace and water heater and even new side and back decks. The living room has a brick fireplace recently painted gray. There are lots of windows and most of the house gets great afternoon sun. There is a nook that could be a home office. Large kitchen offers room for dining room or area. Back room has been used as a bedroom but it could be a family room, dining room, large home office, etc. This beauty is move-in ready so make sure to see this one before it's gone!

24. 2010-04-07
    soldstatus $101,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming home shows very well near Golf Course and Country Club. Square Footage of 1st and 2nd floor per tax records does not include sunroom/study along right side of living room and kitchen incorporated some time ago. This square footage is per owner. Also, not included is a large passive solar dining room addition now unheated 15 x 8 (could easily be heated). Walk to St. Pats elementary going out S. Massey just before the Reserve Center see blue house on the corner driveway is on the right side facing house. Taxes are before Star and VA exemptions.

25. 2010-04-07
    soldstatus $95,000

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming home shows very well near Golf Course and Country Club. Square Footage of 1st and 2nd floor per tax records does not include sunroom/study along right side of living room and kitchen incorporated some time ago. This square footage is per owner. Also, not included is a large passive solar dining room addition now unheated 15 x 8 (could easily be heated). Walk to St. Pats elementary going out S. Massey just before the Reserve Center see blue house on the corner driveway is on the right side facing house. Taxes are before Star and VA exemptions.

26. 2010-03-01
    listed $107,700 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming home shows very well near Golf Course and Country Club. Square Footage of 1st and 2nd floor per tax records does not include sunroom/study along right side of living room and kitchen incorporated some time ago. This square footage is per owner. Also, not included is a large passive solar dining room addition now unheated 15 x 8 (could easily be heated). Walk to St. Pats elementary going out S. Massey just before the Reserve Center see blue house on the corner driveway is on the right side facing house. Taxes are before Star and VA exemptions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,172 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,472
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $-458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $175,000 CNYIS
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $153,500 Public Records
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $153,500 CNYIS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-01-28 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-01-20 Price Changed $154,900 CNYIS
• 2022-01-12 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2010-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-07 Sold (MLS) $101,000 CNYIS
• 2010-03-01 Listed $107,700 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,472 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.