733 Robin Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1994 0.27 ac lot $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. SHORT SALE!!!!Opportunity knocks in Kissimmee! This short sale features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 2-car garage, and a spacious backyard—plus a solar system for energy efficiency. Comfortable flow and strong bones; This home features a New Air Conditioner Unit recently installed in 2022 light TLC will make it shine and build equity from day one. Tucked on a cul-de-sac close to everyday conveniences and commuter routes. Sale requires lender approval; timelines may be extended.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Solar system
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SOLAR SYSTEM
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER UNIT
• CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-772/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,629 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,142
• Equity at exit: $40,445

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,546
• Equity at exit: $38,978

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,875/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,882

Max offer price $173,629

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-12	+0% $-64	+5% $-117	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-136	+0% $-64	+5% $7	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-17	base $-64	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
754 Pelican Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,695	$1.30	5d	1	0.25mi
327 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.45mi
702 Bluebill Pl Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	25d	1	0.65mi
612 Bluebill Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	5d	1	0.67mi
568 Kingfisher Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,750	$1.37	25d	1	0.69mi
721 Bittern Ln Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	25d	1	0.70mi
736 Bittern Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	25d	1	0.71mi
575 Eagle Ct Unit 116 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,000	$0.85	5d	1	0.75mi
510 Eagle Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,650	$1.24	25d	1	0.77mi
627 Bittern Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	5d	1	0.78mi
627B Bittern Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	13d	1	0.78mi
627 Bluebill Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,760	$1.23	25d	1	0.80mi
641 Yak Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	25d	1	0.87mi
543 Cardinal Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,860	$1.85	25d	1	0.87mi
519 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	25d	1	0.87mi
517 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,530	$1.17	25d	1	0.89mi
514 Blackbird Ln Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,600	$1.15	23d	1	0.89mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,650	$1.37	12d	1	0.91mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,599	$1.32	25d	1	0.91mi
539 Albatross Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,500	$1.23	25d	1	0.92mi
442 Flamingo Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,695	$1.16	25d	1	0.94mi
827 Massy Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,639	$1.11	23d	1	0.94mi
435 Magpie Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1413	$1,725	$1.22	25d	1	0.94mi
504 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0	1.5	908	$1,550	$1.71	16d	1	0.94mi
504 Blackbird Ln Unit A Kissimmee, FL	2.0	1.5	908	$1,580	$1.74	20d	1	0.95mi
774 Squirrel Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	25d	1	0.95mi
783 Squirrel Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	0.99mi
870 Jarnac Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,695	$1.25	0d	1	0.99mi
767 Platypus Ct Unit 767 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	25d	1	1.00mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	25d	1	1.01mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	5d	1	1.01mi
653 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,000	$1.61	15d	1	1.02mi
780 Platypus Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	25d	1	1.03mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,870	$1.50	5d	1	1.04mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,020	$1.62	4d	1	1.04mi
439 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	1.05mi
401 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	25d	1	1.05mi
411 Blackbird Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	25d	1	1.06mi
609 Tamarin Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,725	$1.38	16d	1	1.09mi
603 Muskrat Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,050	$1.37	5d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   status Active
3. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-23
   price $185,000
5. 2026-01-07
   price $195,000
6. 2025-11-20
   listed $205,000 Active
7. 2025-08-09
   status Active
8. 2025-05-12
   status Pending
9. 2025-04-29
   price $175,000
10. 2025-03-26
    price $195,999
11. 2025-03-13
    price $199,900
12. 2025-01-22
    status Active
13. 2024-11-19
    status Pending
14. 2024-10-28
    price $205,000
15. 2024-10-21
    price $230,000
16. 2024-10-15
    price $260,000
17. 2024-10-04
    listed $275,000 Active
18. 2024-09-27
    historical
19. 2024-09-06
    price $275,000
20. 2024-08-23
    listed $280,000 Active
21. 2024-08-19
    historical
22. 2024-07-03
    price $289,900
23. 2024-06-20
    price $289,950
24. 2024-04-22
    price $299,900
25. 2024-04-09
    price $299,925
26. 2024-03-19
    listed $299,950 Active
27. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus $281,000
28. 2022-05-04
    soldstatus $281,000 Closed
29. 2022-03-22
    status Pending
30. 2022-03-17
    listed $269,900 Active
31. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $174,000 Sold
32. 2019-09-20
    status Pending
33. 2019-09-16
    price $183,900
34. 2019-08-15
    listed $189,900 Active
35. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold
36. 2018-05-27
    status Pending
37. 2018-05-08
    price $184,500
38. 2018-04-07
    price $189,000
39. 2018-03-20
    listed $195,000 Active
40. 2003-05-01
    soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,875
• − Insurance: −$2,428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$911
• After-tax cash flow: $138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+101.1% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $195,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $289,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $299,925 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Listed $299,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $281,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-04 Sold (MLS) $281,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-17 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-16 Price Changed $183,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-15 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-08 Price Changed $184,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-20 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,875 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.