SAVANNAH Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$324,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Savannah! This two-story plan boasts an open-concept layout on the main floor, with an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a wraparound counter and a spacious island. You'll also find a private study and a convenient mud room on this level! The second floor features an expansive loft with ample space to customize for your lifestyle. The primary suite showcases a luxurious private bath with a walk-in shower and dual vanities. Three additional secondary bedrooms all offer walk-in closets.

Key facts

• Convenient mud room
• Airy great room
• Expansive loft

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE STUDY
• CONVENIENT MUD ROOM
• EXPANSIVE LOFT
• LUXURIOUS PRIVATE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $324,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $475,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.4% in Brookshire — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,596 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.25%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $475,000
• List price: $324,990
• Delta: -31.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7313 Falcon Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,842 (+7%)	6mo	$679,900	$239	54
32610 Mallard St	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,390 (-10%)	0mo	$475,000	$199	50
32348 Teal St	1.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,726 (+3%)	19mo	$667,000	$245	40
7911 Meadowlark St	1.04mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,904 (+9%)	4mo	$555,000	$191	37
32680 Teal St	0.80mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,798 (+5%)	16mo	$680,000	$243	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-170,578
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.16×
• Total profit: $-287,365
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $302,490 ($131/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 75% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-1,358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,155

Max offer price $278,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,030	-5% $-1,194	+0% $-1,358	+5% $-1,522	+10% $-1,686
Rent	-10% $-1,551	-5% $-1,454	+0% $-1,358	+5% $-1,262	+10% $-1,166
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,119	-0.5pp $-1,237	base $-1,358	+0.5pp $-1,481	+1.0pp $-1,607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $324,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residential (SAVANNAH plan)Address: 1454 Catalina Dr, Brookshire TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,657 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: SAVANNAH (new construction inventory)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $324,990 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $324,990 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $324,990 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $324,990 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $324,990 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $324,990 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $324,990 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $324,990 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $324,990 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 91 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 90 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 89 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 86 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 78 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $324,990 Active 77 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 76 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 75 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 74 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 73 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 72 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 70 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 64 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 63 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 62 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 61 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 59 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 54 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 53 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 49 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,339
• − Management: −$2,339
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$25,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious layout with an open-concept floor plan and ample natural light. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some minor updates to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick in a more vibrant color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home stand out. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms — Upgrading the flooring can make the bedrooms more appealing and increase the home's overall value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $324,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residential (SAVANNAH plan)Address: 1454 Catalina Dr, Brookshire TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,657 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: SAVANNAH (new construction inventory)