266 Brown Swiss Cir · Cross Keys, PA 16635

$38,600

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 849 sqft · Manufactured · 107 Days on market

Built 2026 $45/sqft · at area comps Est $37k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Large BR, Large LR, 1BA, eat in kitchen

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 107 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $267 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,126 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.85%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,873
• List price: $38,600
• Delta: 4.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $19,044
• Equity at exit: $5,755

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $49,402
• Equity at exit: $3,337

Cash invested: $10,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16635

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $38,600

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,650
• Closing costs: $1,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
259 Brown Swiss Cir Duncansville, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$975	$1.24	43d	1	0.10mi
1024 3rd Ave Unit 2nd Fl Duncansville, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $38,600 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,600 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,600 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,600 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,600 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,600 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,600 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,600 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,600 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,600 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,600 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $38,600 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,600 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,600 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,600 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,600 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,600 Active 87 DOM
18. 2026-03-04
    listed $38,600 Active 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    2 Large BR, Large LR, 1BA, eat in kitchen

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,162
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$1,696
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$1,123
• Taxable income: $4,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $3,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hollidaysburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,676
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2511
• State rank: #129 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cross Keys

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cross Keys, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,115

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.69%
• Current HPI: 258.7396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $38,600 Zillow

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $497 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.