2 Magnolia Dr Unit 1A · Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,595,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,591 sqft · Townhouse · 91 Days on market

Built 2023

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Exciting new community taking shape in the heart of Water Mill with ultimate luxury & convenience, classic Hamptons style in an easy-to-maintain manageable environment. Watermill Crossing offers village living with full services & amenities, in homes inspired by quintessential Hamptons architecture. Highest quality materials & finishes, no detail overlooked. Set on manicured 6.4 acres, ready for occupancy 2023, 38 new homes being built by JS Squared, a multidisciplinary real estate development company, architectural design by McDonough & Conroy, interior design by Mabley Handler. 2-story homes from 2,500 to 2,800+/- sf, up to 4 bedrooms, basement, att garage, fenced

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2023
• Listed 91 days

🏗️ New construction. The $2,595,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $2,386,311.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath townhouse listed at $2.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25k ($296k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $2.60M).
• Recommended offer: $2.36M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $52,093/mo this rent would consume 347% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $222k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $206k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $668k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$357k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $2,361,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.29%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,386,311
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Spruce Ct	0.07mi	4/4.5	2,801 (+8%)	2mo	$3,425,000	$1,223	82
12 Spruce Ct Unit 8B	0.04mi	4/4.0	2,459 (-5%)	16mo	$2,265,000	$921	75
15 Magnolia Dr Unit 4D	0.44mi	4/4.5	2,591 (0%)	14mo	$2,225,000	$859	67
20 Magnolia Dr Unit 3D	0.44mi	4/4.5	2,591 (0%)	17mo	$1,950,000	$753	65
5 Spruce Ct Unit 10A	0.44mi	4/4.0	2,574 (-1%)	17mo	$2,775,000	$1,078	62
14 Magnolia Dr Unit 3A	0.44mi	4/4.0	2,574 (-1%)	17mo	$2,090,000	$812	62
3 Spruce Ct Unit 10B	0.44mi	4/4.0	2,459 (-5%)	16mo	$2,500,000	$1,017	55
14 Spruce Ct Unit 8C	0.44mi	4/4.0	2,459 (-5%)	17mo	$2,295,000	$933	55
7 Spruce Ct Unit 9B	0.44mi	4/4.0	2,801 (+8%)	17mo	$2,670,000	$953	49
19 Magnolia Dr Unit 4A	0.44mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,459 (-5%)	17mo	$1,960,000	$797	49
17 Magnolia Dr Unit 4C	0.44mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,459 (-5%)	17mo	$1,960,000	$797	49
16 Magnolia Dr Unit 3B	0.44mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,459 (-5%)	17mo	$1,900,000	$773	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $2,927,031
• Equity at exit: $1,916,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 13.02×
• Total profit: $8,028,848
• Equity at exit: $3,907,006

Cash invested: $668,167 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,983 /mo · $35,795/yr
• Insurance: −$994
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,939
• Net cashflow: $24,662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,875

Max offer price $2,386,311

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26,311	-5% $25,486	+0% $24,662	+5% $23,837	+10% $23,013
Rent	-10% $20,547	-5% $22,604	+0% $24,662	+5% $26,720	+10% $28,777
Rate	-1.0pp $25,864	-0.5pp $25,269	base $24,662	+0.5pp $24,044	+1.0pp $23,414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $596,578
• Closing costs: $71,589
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2648	$50,000	$18.88	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-12-02
   status Pending
2. 2022-11-07
   status Pending
3. 2022-11-07
   historical
4. 2022-08-08
   listed $2,595,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $625,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$133,671
• − Property taxes: −$35,795
• − Insurance: −$11,932
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,009
• − Management: −$50,009
• − Depreciation: −$69,420
• Taxable income: $274,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65,826
• After-tax cash flow: $230,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-08 Listed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid