4970 Broad Run Rd · New Haven, WV
Flood risk 10/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $787 – $1,461
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.1/10.0
- Appreciation +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.2/10.0
$69,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This secluded property awaits its new owner. Could also be used as a camp. Ample living space on the main floor with additional bedroom in the basement. Detached, oversized two-car garage is a dream for those that like to tinker. Home sits on 1 acre but includes a total of 7 acres. Includes two additional parcels listed in confidential remarks. House being sold AS IS.
Key facts
- Ample living space
- Secluded property
- Total of 7 acres
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($847 rent vs $70k).
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#111 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Mason County Schools (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #44 of 55 in WV (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #218 of 377 statewide, top 59%, 460 students, 0% FRL); Wahama Junior/Senior High School (math 16% / reading 43%, grade F, #69 of 110 statewide, top 71%, 387 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
- Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.21% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.78%
- Cash-on-cash
- 16.01%
- DSCR
- 1.71
- GRM
- 6.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $137,376
- Comps found
- 1
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6055 Broad Run Rd | 0.50mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 806 (-7%) | 0mo | $128,000 | $159 | 60 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 18.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.06×
- Total profit
- $20,831
- Equity at exit
- $31,430
- IRR
- 20.0%
- Equity multiple
- 3.90×
- Total profit
- $56,795
- Equity at exit
- $48,437
Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State West Virginia
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 25253
- Active inventory
- 10
- Price-to-rent
- 6.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $847 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$367
- Tax from tax record
- −$12 /mo · $147/yr
- Insurance
- −$29
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$178
- Net cashflow
- $195
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $17,475
- Closing costs
- $2,097
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-02-20status Pending
-
2026-02-11$69,900 Active
-
2019-11-01$57,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $147 · $12/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $412 · $34/mo
- Expected delta
- +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 179.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $10,165
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,915
- − Property taxes
- −$147
- − Insurance
- −$1,147
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$813
- − Management
- −$813
- − Depreciation
- −$2,033
- Taxable income
- $1,295
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$311
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,026/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Mason County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 5400780
- Math proficiency
- 20% ▼ -13.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 33% ▼ -10.00%
- Median HH income
- $37,623
- Composite
- 22.07/100
- National rank
- #8191
- State rank
- #44 of 55 in WV
Livability — New Haven
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #111
- US rank
- #11999
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Mason · 14,594 people
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,246
- Household income
- $61,439
- Rent vs Own
Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 26,174 people
- By 2030
- 25,482 · -2.6%
- By 2040
- 23,934 · -8.6%
- By 2050
- 22,432 · -14.3%
- By 2075
- 19,241 · -26.5%
- By 2100
- 15,427 · -41.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (94%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
- Common ancestry
- Serbian 7% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
- Languages at home
- 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Mason
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.0% · R 78.0% · Other 1.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -45.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.7 2012: R+20.3 2008: R+12.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- —
- Current HPI
- —
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- —
- F500 in state
- 0
Price history
+22.6% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-20 Pending — KVBOR
- 2026-02-11 Listed $69,900 KVBOR
- 2019-11-01 Listed $57,000 KVBOR
Property tax history
+14.9%/yrLatest (2025): $147 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…