406 Lindsley Ct · Burlington, NJ 08016

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1992 $267/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect affordable housing unit in desirable Bridle Club neighborhood. Priced to sale!! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom upper-level unit offers great potential for the handy buyer! Come make this unit your own. Property is in need of kitchen, bathroom, paint, and flooring renovations. This is an affordable housing unit and all buyers must be approved and follow the application process. Contact the listing agent for housing application and income limits. Must be owner occuppied- no investors or flipper. Cannot be rented out.

Key facts

• $267 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as average to below average; Finished area above grade recorded as 936 by assessor
• HOA & community: HOA fee $267 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total garage/parking space; 1 parking lot space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (no septic); Electric cooling; Natural gas heating
• Home design: Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Unit/flat; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Shingle siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Parking lot spaces; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: No basement; Living area recorded by assessor
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup in unit; 60+ gallon hot water tank

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 4.8% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Burlington Township School District (suburban): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #258 of 472 in NJ (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $65k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.99%
• DSCR: 4.11
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $57,271
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $137,712
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$267
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $1,062

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,098	-5% $1,080	+0% $1,062	+5% $1,043	+10% $1,025
Rent	-10% $885	-5% $973	+0% $1,062	+5% $1,150	+10% $1,238
Rate	-1.0pp $1,094	-0.5pp $1,078	base $1,062	+0.5pp $1,045	+1.0pp $1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Emily Ln Burlington, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1571	$3,174	$2.02	0d	43	1.06mi
1011 Garnet Dr Burlington, NJ	2.0	1.0	956	$1,900	$1.99	16d	1	1.38mi
511 Garnet Dr Burlington, NJ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,950	$1.85	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $267 · $3,204/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 524-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 452-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $65,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    historical $65,000
18. 1992-12-28
    soldstatus $27,360

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $870 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$3,204
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $12,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,034
• After-tax cash flow: $9,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3402460
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $82,078
• Composite: 33.29/100
• National rank: #5508
• State rank: #258 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+137.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $27,360 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.