2781 Grape St · Abilene, TX 79601

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1952 Good condition 7,318 sqft lot $107/sqft · 19% below area Est $147k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DO NOT go onto the property or disturb the tenants without written permission via text or email . email listing agent , text , or phone owner agent. Updated flooring, new paint in 2023. Real wood flooring , sanded and re-stained. NEW ROOF June 2025.

Key facts

• 7,318 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 6.6% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Martinez El (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 412 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,197/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.87%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,311
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -18.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2733 Orange St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+5%)	8mo	$203,000	$172	72
2741 Orange St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+5%)	8mo	$203,000	$172	72
2799 Victoria St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (+0%)	10mo	$120,000	$106	72
2917 Hickory St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+2%)	7mo	$130,000	$113	72
1234 N 26th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+1%)	7mo	$55,000	$48	70
2498 Grape St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,236 (+10%)	10mo	$49,999	$40	57
1958 Beckham St	0.49mi	3/1.0	992 (-12%)	1mo	$139,900	$141	56
1949 Sandefer St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+7%)	0mo	$150,000	$124	54
1748 Jameson St	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (+13%)	0mo	$142,500	$112	53
1702 Sandefer St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (+13%)	6mo	$89,900	$71	43
2341 Walnut St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+11%)	8mo	$192,000	$153	37
3626 Grape St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-15%)	7mo	$85,000	$89	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $50,807
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $172,659
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.5 mo (67%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $210,000 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -21.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,628/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $988	-5% $954	+0% $920	+5% $886	+10% $852
Rent	-10% $747	-5% $834	+0% $920	+5% $1,007	+10% $1,094
Rate	-1.0pp $981	-0.5pp $951	base $920	+0.5pp $889	+1.0pp $858

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1732 Jameson St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1241	$2,200	$1.77	93d	1	0.36mi
2841 Old Anson Rd Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$2,000	$2.15	62d	1	0.41mi
2934 Old Anson Rd Unit 321 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,437	$1.21	70d	1	0.58mi
1638 Merchant St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,895	$2.18	62d	1	1.06mi
1426 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,014	$1.85	62d	1	1.45mi
3296 Sandefer St Abilene, TX	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	62d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession available in 30–60 days or otherUnknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictions
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financingNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meterIndividual water meter
• Home design: Single family residence (attached)One storyBuilt in 1952Subdivision: Horn & Stephens Of North Park
• Construction: Year built 1952
• Exterior features: Storm cellarShed(s)Chain link fencing around back yardFew trees on the lotAll-weather road accessCity water and city sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedroomsPrimary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meterIndividual water meter

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,628 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,628
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,328
• After-tax cash flow: $8,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,625–$16,875 screening

The home is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and flooring. Minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Martinez El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 145,270 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession available in 30–60 days or otherUnknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictions
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financingNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meterIndividual water meter
• Home design: Single family residence (attached)One storyBuilt in 1952Subdivision: Horn & Stephens Of North Park
• Construction: Year built 1952
• Exterior features: Storm cellarShed(s)Chain link fencing around back yardFew trees on the lotAll-weather road accessCity water and city sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedroomsPrimary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meterIndividual water meter

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $158,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $148,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-11-02 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-13 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 1988-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,628 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.