2781 Grape St · Abilene, TX 79601

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1952 Good condition 7,318 sqft lot $107/sqft · 20% below area Est $149k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DO NOT go onto the property or disturb the tenants without written permission via text or email . Email listing agent , text , or phone owner- agent. Updated flooring, new paint in 2023. Real wood flooring , sanded and re-stained. NEW ROOF June 2025. Property is leased for 6 months . .. .so through March 2027. New owner will have to honor lease until the end of the lease. Owner is a Texas licensed real estate broker.

Key facts

• 7,318 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.2% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Martinez El (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 412 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.55%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,427
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -19.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1674 Anson Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	3mo	$210,000	$191	79
2733 Orange St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+5%)	11mo	$203,000	$172	69
2917 Hickory St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+2%)	10mo	$130,000	$113	69
3001 Old Anson Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-2%)	1mo	$170,000	$154	68
1234 N 26th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+1%)	10mo	$55,000	$48	68
2498 Grape St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,236 (+10%)	2mo	$215,500	$174	63
1958 Beckham St	0.49mi	3/1.0	992 (-12%)	4mo	$139,900	$141	54
1949 Sandefer St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$124	51
1748 Jameson St	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (+13%)	3mo	$142,500	$112	50
1702 Sandefer St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (+13%)	9mo	$89,900	$71	41
2341 Walnut St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+11%)	11mo	$192,000	$153	34
3626 Grape St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-15%)	10mo	$85,000	$89	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $28,491
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $117,553
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.6 mo (167%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,000 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 146 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -24.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,628/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $637	+0% $603	+5% $569	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $532	+0% $603	+5% $674	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $634	base $603	+0.5pp $572	+1.0pp $541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Beech St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	782	$875	$1.12	45d	1	0.11mi
2710 Beech St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	18d	1	0.13mi
1732 Jameson St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1241	$2,200	$1.77	184d	1	0.36mi
2018 Summers St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	31d	1	0.36mi
2841 Old Anson Rd Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$2,000	$2.15	154d	1	0.41mi
2934 Old Anson Rd Unit 321 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,437	$1.21	162d	1	0.58mi
2399 Old Anson Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,500	$1.33	28d	1	0.62mi
2249 Vogel St Apt 106 Abilene, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,146	$1.09	20d	1	0.71mi
1638 Merchant St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,895	$2.18	154d	1	1.06mi
1750 Walnut St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,695	$1.47	51d	1	1.13mi
1426 Cedar St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1064	$5,000	$4.70	10d	1	1.28mi
1417 Hickory St Abilene, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$5,000	$4.42	10d	1	1.29mi
2034 Fannin St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1334	$1,695	$1.27	1d	1	1.31mi
2034 Fannin St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1334	$1,695	$1.27	10d	1	1.31mi
1351 Beech St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,685	$1.93	21d	1	1.31mi
1541 Westmoreland St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,795	$1.66	10d	1	1.33mi
3234 Iris St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$2,350	$1.80	5d	1	1.37mi
3234 Iris St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$2,350	$1.80	8d	1	1.37mi
3242 Iris St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$2,350	$1.80	12d	1	1.38mi
1466 Park Ave Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,595	$1.54	45d	1	1.38mi
3217 Melinda Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.5	1166	$1,800	$1.54	23d	1	1.38mi
3231 Ivy Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$995	$0.92	10d	1	1.43mi
3231 Ivy Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,795	$1.66	18d	1	1.43mi
3231 Ivy Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$995	$0.92	12d	1	1.43mi
1526 Ash St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	17d	1	1.43mi
1526 Green St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	942	$1,500	$1.59	45d	1	1.45mi
1426 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,014	$1.85	154d	1	1.45mi
1402 Park Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,895	$1.68	51d	1	1.45mi
1402 Park Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,695	$1.50	44d	1	1.45mi
1431 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,949	$1.90	22d	1	1.46mi
1142 Grape St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,695	$1.15	49d	1	1.48mi
3296 Sandefer St Abilene, TX	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	154d	1	1.48mi
1402 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,975	$1.92	16d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession available in 30–60 days or otherUnknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictions
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financingNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meterIndividual water meter
• Home design: Single family residence (attached)One storyBuilt in 1952Subdivision: Horn & Stephens Of North Park
• Construction: Year built 1952
• Exterior features: Storm cellarShed(s)Chain link fencing around back yardFew trees on the lotAll-weather road accessCity water and city sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedroomsPrimary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meterIndividual water meter

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $106,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $106,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $106,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $106,000 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $106,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $106,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $106,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $106,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $106,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $106,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $106,000 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    remarks 426-char remark
18. 2026-10-23
    price $106,000 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 191 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 190 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 189 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 177 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 176 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 175 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 174 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 173 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 172 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 170 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 169 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 168 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 167 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 165 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,628 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,628
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,358
• After-tax cash flow: $5,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,625–$16,875 screening

The home is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and flooring. Minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Martinez El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 145,270 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession available in 30–60 days or otherUnknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictions
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financingNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meterIndividual water meter
• Home design: Single family residence (attached)One storyBuilt in 1952Subdivision: Horn & Stephens Of North Park
• Construction: Year built 1952
• Exterior features: Storm cellarShed(s)Chain link fencing around back yardFew trees on the lotAll-weather road accessCity water and city sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedroomsPrimary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meterIndividual water meter

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $158,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $148,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-11-02 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-13 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 1988-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,628 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.