Dowing Plan · San Antonio, TX 78224

$251,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 384 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $251,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,784.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 274 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 384 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,600 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 384 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,784
• List price: $251,999
• Delta: -13.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4115 Hidden Holw	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,793 (-3%)	3mo	$199,900	$111	85
15326 Waterow Vw	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,794 (-3%)	1mo	$279,900	$156	76
4223 Marjoram Lndg	0.54mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+2%)	1mo	$254,795	$135	63
4239 Marjoram Lndg	0.55mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+2%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	62
4267 Marjoram Lndg	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+2%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	61
15619 Garam Trl	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,856 (+0%)	2mo	$235,000	$127	60
15431 Mint Patch Mdw	0.65mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+2%)	2mo	$254,795	$135	57
4235 Marjoram Lndg	0.55mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,971 (+6%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	56
4235 Paprika Grv	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,971 (+6%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	54
15423 Mint Patch Mdw	0.64mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,971 (+6%)	2mo	$256,765	$130	51
15418 Lemon Pepper Crk	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-15%)	3mo	$248,590	$158	47
15519 Mint Patch Mdw	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-15%)	5mo	$259,000	$165	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $126,196
• Equity at exit: $262,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $386,230
• Equity at exit: $566,873

Cash invested: $81,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,530
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,377/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $227,028

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,946
• Closing costs: $8,754
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15027 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	0.28mi
15114 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	3.5	2198	$2,000	$0.91	22d	1	0.32mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	14d	1	0.33mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	17d	1	0.33mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	43d	1	0.33mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.33mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$2,128	$1.19	1d	1	0.36mi
3819 Leighton Hbr Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1430	$1,700	$1.19	24d	1	0.38mi
15226 Walcott Rdg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1297	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	0.45mi
15237 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2542	$2,100	$0.83	43d	1	0.47mi
15266 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,647	$1.08	2d	1	0.52mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	20d	1	0.59mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	4d	1	0.59mi
4042 Bay Leaf Loop Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	0.60mi
4218 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,595	$1.11	43d	1	0.64mi
15619 Garam Trl Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1856	$1,755	$0.95	43d	1	0.66mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,305	$1.47	1d	6	0.66mi
15559 Mint Patch Mdw Unit 1 Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$600	$0.24	43d	1	0.75mi
4750 Broadside Ave Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,845	$0.88	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,999 Active 384 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,999 Active 383 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,999 Active 382 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,999 Active 381 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $251,999 Active 379 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,499 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,499 Active 374 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $251,499 Active 373 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $251,499 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,499 Active 369 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,499 Active 368 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,499 Active 367 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,499 Active 366 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $250,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2026-05-17
    price $250,499 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $248,499 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

17. 2026-02-13
    price $247,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

18. 2025-11-23
    price $250,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

19. 2025-11-22
    price $249,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2025-11-22
    price $247,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

21. 2025-11-21
    price $249,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

22. 2025-09-15
    price $247,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

23. 2025-09-01
    price $252,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

24. 2025-07-03
    price $257,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

25. 2025-05-30
    listed $267,999 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,344
• − Property taxes: −$4,377
• − Insurance: −$1,459
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$8,488
• Taxable loss: −$10,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,556
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $250,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $250,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $248,499 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $247,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $250,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $247,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $247,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-30 Listed $267,999 Zillow