1190 Calley Dr Unit C · Mehlville, MO 63125

$91,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1973 $105/sqft · 19% below area Est $114k · 19% under $430/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great, affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom second floor unit located on secluded street in convenient St Louis South County. As you enter you are greeted by large living room with kitchen and dining room to the right. Follow the hallway to 2 nice size bedrooms and updated bathroom. Access large long 4x22 balcony through living room, perfect for your morning or afternoon coffee. Newer thermal windows, new doors, freshly painted, all appliances included in sale. Extra storage locker located in building next door.

Key facts

• $430 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-235/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Mehlville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $635 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $92k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,629 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,704
• List price: $91,900
• Delta: -19.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-15,879
• Equity at exit: $13,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-14,379
• Equity at exit: $7,946

Cash invested: $25,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $911/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$430
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $88,441

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $6	+0% $-20	+5% $-46	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-70	+0% $-20	+5% $31	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $4	base $-20	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,975
• Closing costs: $2,757
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3605 Traceyrich Rd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	972	$1,650	$1.70	44d	1	0.48mi
2819 Lemay Ferry Rd Apt E St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$925	$1.32	18d	1	0.54mi
2819 Lemay Ferry Rd Unit B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	18d	1	0.54mi
3633 Shores Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	884	$1,920	$2.17	15d	1	0.58mi
315 Sigsbee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	22d	1	0.71mi
274 Kingston Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	522	$1,149	$2.20	2d	4	1.04mi
9964 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	8d	1	1.08mi
9954 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	5d	1	1.11mi
1908 Via Veneto Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,021	$1.28	2d	3	1.11mi
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	8d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $430 · $5,160/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $91,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $91,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $91,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $91,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $91,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $91,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $91,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $91,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $91,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $91,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $91,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-03-12
    listed $95,900 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Great, affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom second floor unit located on secluded street in convenient St Louis South County. As you enter you are greeted by large living room with kitchen and dining room to the right. Follow the hallway to 2 nice size bedrooms and updated bathroom. Access large long 4x22 balcony through living room, perfect for your morning or afternoon coffee. Newer thermal windows, new doors, freshly painted, all appliances included in sale. Extra storage locker located in building next door.

14. 2026-03-12
    historical $95,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Great, affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom second floor unit located on secluded street in convenient St Louis South County. As you enter you are greeted by large living room with kitchen and dining room to the right. Follow the hallway to 2 nice size bedrooms and updated bathroom. Access large long 4x22 balcony through living room, perfect for your morning or afternoon coffee. Newer thermal windows, new doors, freshly painted, all appliances included in sale. Extra storage locker located in building next door.

15. 2025-01-22
    historical $1,000
16. 2025-01-20
    listed $1,000
17. 2001-06-18
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,148
• − Property taxes: −$911
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − HOA: −$5,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mehlville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #11310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mehlville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $95,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Coming Soon $95,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Rental Removed $1,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-01-20 Listed for Rent $1,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2001-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $911 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.