3740 Blackwood Rd #42 · South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

$149,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 190 Days on market

Built 2021 Est $140k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

✨ In the Heart of South Lake Tahoe! Welcome to Heavenly Valley Estates an all-ages, vibrant community perfectly located near restaurants, shops, world-class skiing, and the lake! This 2021 home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and features our sleek black appliance package, modern finishes, and move-in ready comfort, this home is your gateway to the South Lake Tahoe lifestyle. 🏡 Why rent when you can own? Affordable financing options available (on approved credit) with low down payments and flexible monthly terms. 💰 Special Offer: Close by the end of September to lock in the best pricing in town! Live in a community full of pride and surrounded by the stunning beauty of the Sierra Nevada M

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 190 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.5% in South Lake Tahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#371 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Lake Tahoe Unified (town): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #786 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.63%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,500
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3740 Blackwood Rd #42	0.00mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$156	100
3740 Blackwood Rd #40	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (0%)	9mo	$120,000	$133	83
3740 Blackwood Rd #52	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	840 (-7%)	2mo	$130,000	$155	76
3740 Blackwood Rd #22	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	768 (-15%)	9mo	$40,000	$52	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,463
• Equity at exit: $22,364

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $74,703
• Equity at exit: $12,968

Cash invested: $41,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96150

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,990

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,498
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3624 Terry Ln Unit 26 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	728	$1,895	$2.60	16d	1	0.18mi
1232 Ski Run Blvd South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	2d	1	0.19mi
3668 Spruce Ave Unit 21 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	595	$1,449	$2.44	44d	1	0.32mi
3671 Spruce Ave Unit 5 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	636	$1,725	$2.71	3d	1	0.34mi
3671 Spruce Ave Unit 1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	44d	1	0.34mi
3720 Ruby Way Unit 2 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	44d	1	0.38mi
1116 Herbert Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.0	896	$2,495	$2.78	44d	1	0.44mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit E1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,500	$2.36	20d	1	0.48mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit D-2 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	18d	1	0.48mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit H1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.5	1060	$3,250	$3.07	23d	1	0.49mi
3679 Alder Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	2.0	683	$2,200	$3.22	3d	1	0.53mi
3780 Stewart Way Unit 6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	616	$2,500	$4.06	12d	1	0.54mi
3716 Pioneer Trl Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	44d	1	0.57mi
3361 Heavenly Valley Rd South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$3,600	$3.30	44d	1	0.77mi
3815 Forest Ave Unit A South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,450	$2.45	23d	1	0.78mi
3841 Pentagon Rd Unit 3 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	18d	1	0.87mi
1070 Echo Rd Unit EME6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,795	$2.11	15d	1	1.08mi
1037 Echo Rd Unit 3 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	545	$1,875	$3.44	4d	1	1.10mi
1037 Echo Rd Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	545	$1,975	$3.62	18d	1	1.10mi
1037 Fern Rd South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,400	$2.22	44d	1	1.15mi
3993 Manzanita Ave Unit 8 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	15d	1	1.22mi
966 Modesto Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	450	$1,590	$3.53	2d	2	1.26mi
946 Modesto Ave Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,695	$2.83	44d	1	1.30mi
945 Alameda Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,700	$2.68	44d	1	1.34mi
881 Modesto Ave Unit 6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,450	$2.16	4d	1	1.46mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,363
• Taxable income: $5,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $6,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Tahoe Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,114
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #9844
• State rank: #786 of 1400 in CA

Livability — South Lake Tahoe

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #12667

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lake Tahoe, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 29,646
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,646
• Household income: $92,517
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -571.55%
• Current HPI: 316.6411
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B