Robie Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$400,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This all-concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer.

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Outdoor patio
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• OVERSIZED OWNER'S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $400,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $426,388.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $401k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($353k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $333,623 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,388
• List price: $400,990
• Delta: -5.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1910 Hammock Trace Dr	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,447 (0%)	2mo	$405,000	$166	86
17122 James Trl	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (+4%)	1mo	$459,000	$181	78
1841 Hammock Trace Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	2mo	$379,000	$168	68
18375 Legacy Preserve Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (-8%)	0mo	$405,000	$180	64
18383 Legacy Preserve Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (-8%)	1mo	$516,000	$230	63
17147 James Trl	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+13%)	1mo	$454,000	$165	63
18384 Legacy Preserve Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (-8%)	2mo	$400,000	$178	63
1917 Cobb Trl	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+13%)	1mo	$455,000	$165	62
17166 James Trl	0.27mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,787 (+14%)	1mo	$541,000	$194	56
1812 Vandalia Pl	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,787 (+14%)	0mo	$531,190	$191	54
1824 Vandalia Pl	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,787 (+14%)	1mo	$523,000	$188	53
1828 Vandalia Pl	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,787 (+14%)	2mo	$530,000	$190	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-98,631
• Equity at exit: $63,576

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-148,977
• Equity at exit: $36,866

Cash invested: $119,389 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $442,000 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$533 /mo · $6,396/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,730

Max offer price $381,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-164	+0% $-311	+5% $-458	+10% $-606
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-443	+0% $-311	+5% $-179	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-203	base $-311	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,597
• Closing costs: $12,792
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	72d	1	0.93mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $400,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Address: Robie Plan, Parrish, FL 34219Plan name: Robie
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,447

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: RobieNew construction

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $400,990 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $400,990 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $400,990 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $400,990 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $400,990 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $400,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $400,990 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $400,990 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $400,990 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $400,990 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $400,990 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $400,990 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $400,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $400,990 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $400,990 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $400,990 Active 156 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $400,990 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $400,990 Active 153 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $400,990 Active 152 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $400,990 Active 151 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $400,990 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    days on market $400,990 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $400,990 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-07-05
    days on market $400,990 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $400,990 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $400,990 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $400,990 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $400,990 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    days on market $400,990 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $400,990 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $400,990 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $400,990 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-06-25
    days on market $400,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-22
    days on market $400,990 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $400,990 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-06-18
    days on market $400,990 Active 129 DOM
37. 2026-06-17
    days on market $400,990 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-16
    days on market $400,990 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    days on market $400,990 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $400,990 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $400,990 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $400,990 Active 121 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $400,990 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $400,990 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $400,990 Active 118 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,990 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,990 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,990 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,990 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,884
• − Property taxes: −$6,396
• − Insurance: −$2,132
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,203
• − Management: −$3,203
• − Depreciation: −$12,404
• Taxable loss: −$11,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This all-concrete block constructed home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a large open-concept downstairs and an oversized owner's suite. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $400,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Address: Robie Plan, Parrish, FL 34219Plan name: Robie
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,447

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: RobieNew construction