3000 Spur Dr Unit J9 · Mission, TX 78574

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1990 6,003 sqft lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $90k · 11% under $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must-see furnished 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath 16x56 Palm Harbor mobile home in the cozy 55+ Wagon City North community. This well-maintained, recently painted home features a bright front-facing living room and an eat-in kitchen, perfect for comfortable everyday living. Major updates completed within the last three years include the washer, refrigerator, stove/range, dishwasher, water heater, HVAC system, metal roof, and flooring throughout, offering peace of mind and modern convenience. The exterior includes a chain-link fenced backyard with grassy space, a front carport, a large rear-access garage (396 sqft), and a spacious storage room (294 sqft). Situated on a desirable corner lot directly across from the clubhouse, the location adds both convenience and charm. HOA amenities include an outdoor swimming pool, shuffleboard, and more. Located in the heart of Mission near dining, shopping, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Front carport
• Corner lot
• 6,003 sq ft lot

Tags

• FURNISHED MOBILE HOME
• CHAIN-LINK FENCED BACKYARD
• FRONT CARPORT
• LARGE REAR-ACCESS GARAGE
• SPACIOUS STORAGE ROOM
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.27%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Hub Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	784 (-6%)	2mo	$65,000	$83	82
2900 Spur Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	784 (-6%)	13mo	$69,000	$88	76
107 Axle Dr	0.11mi	2/1.5	924 (+11%)	5mo	$75,000	$81	71
202 Stage Coach Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	900 (+8%)	9mo	$142,500	$158	63
215 Covered Wagon Dr	0.35mi	2/1.5	784 (-6%)	14mo	$77,000	$98	60
217 Covered Wagon Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	924 (+11%)	4mo	$74,500	$81	57
2601 Tack Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	948 (+14%)	23mo	$119,000	$126	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,836
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $29,655
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,284/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	14d	1	0.80mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 2 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	14d	1	0.80mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	14d	1	0.80mi
712 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.86mi
2008 N Cummings Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	43d	1	0.88mi
1811 Perkins Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	14d	1	1.00mi
1809 Ramirez St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,300	$1.26	43d	1	1.16mi
1400 N Dunlap Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	1068	$800	$0.75	18d	1	1.32mi
1006 Fairway Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,100	$1.03	43d	1	1.36mi
2903 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	14d	1	1.43mi
2905 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.43mi
2905 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	23d	1	1.43mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	18d	1	1.43mi
1805 Ramirez St Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	43d	1	1.47mi
1804 Ramirez St Unit 1 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	23d	1	1.49mi
1500 E 24th St Unit B-6 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$975	$0.97	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $79,900 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Must-see furnished 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath 16x56 Palm Harbor mobile home in the cozy 55+ Wagon City North community. This well-maintained, recently painted home features a bright front-facing living room and an eat-in kitchen, perfect for comfortable everyday living. Major updates completed within the last three years include the washer, refrigerator, stove/range, dishwasher, water heater, HVAC system, metal roof, and flooring throughout, offering peace of mind and modern convenience. The exterior includes a chain-link fenced backyard with grassy space, a front carport, a large rear-access garage (396 sqft), and a spacious storage room (294 sqft). Situated on a desirable corner lot directly across from the clubhouse, the location adds both convenience and charm. HOA amenities include an outdoor swimming pool, shuffleboard, and more. Located in the heart of Mission near dining, shopping, and entertainment. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2025-11-20
    price $89,900
17. 2025-10-01
    listed $99,900 Active
18. 2025-04-15
    price $99,900
19. 2024-12-09
    listed $119,900 Active
20. 2021-07-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,284 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,284 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$2,284
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $2,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $79,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $89,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $99,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $99,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-12-09 Listed $119,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,284 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.