153 Good Ave · Buffalo, NY 14220

$149,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 3,750 sqft lot Est $189k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 3,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete parking
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Separate electric meters (2); Single gas meter
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing construction
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Copper plumbing; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular, residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric and gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Window treatments (drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,485/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.73%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Macamley St	0.23mi	6/2.0	2,392 (+1%)	5mo	$284,000	$119	83
35 Kimmel Ave	0.14mi	6/2.0	2,218 (-6%)	2mo	$225,000	$101	81
110 Trowbridge St	0.33mi	6/2.0	2,264 (-4%)	4mo	$180,000	$80	74
1726 S Park Ave	0.32mi	6/2.0	2,232 (-6%)	6mo	$77,500	$35	71
331 Mystic St	0.34mi	6/2.0	2,174 (-8%)	5mo	$111,500	$51	67
39 Kimmel Ave	0.14mi	6/2.0	2,016 (-15%)	4mo	$152,000	$75	66
96 Stevenson St	0.49mi	6/2.0	2,496 (+6%)	6mo	$272,096	$109	63
219 Stevenson St	0.69mi	6/2.0	2,332 (-1%)	6mo	$190,000	$81	60
74 Houston St	0.24mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,712 (+15%)	3mo	$148,000	$55	53
51 Olcott Ave	0.60mi	6/2.0	2,592 (+10%)	6mo	$306,000	$118	51
18 Sage Ave	0.66mi	6/2.0	2,578 (+9%)	4mo	$164,500	$64	50
218 Stevenson St	0.67mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,552 (+8%)	7mo	$145,000	$57	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $112,301
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $328,259
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$732
• Net cashflow: $1,879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,964	-5% $1,922	+0% $1,879	+5% $1,665	+10% $1,614
Rent	-10% $1,604	-5% $1,741	+0% $1,879	+5% $2,017	+10% $2,154
Rate	-1.0pp $1,955	-0.5pp $1,917	base $1,879	+0.5pp $1,840	+1.0pp $1,801

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1.5	$3,486
Total (3 units)			$3,485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,114/yr (+$93/mo · 364.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,346
• − Management: −$3,346
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $21,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,116
• After-tax cash flow: $17,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $305 · +45.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.