Sherman Plan · Angleton, TX 77515

$281,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,946.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Angleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 921 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,114 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,946
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3623 Atlas Point Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	1mo	$311,990	$138	90
28815 Golden Wheat Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	1mo	$350,990	$155	88
2103 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	1mo	$313,990	$139	88
2119 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	2mo	$310,990	$137	86
3552 Atlas Point Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,073 (-8%)	1mo	$279,990	$135	74
1523 Windrose Bnd	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,388 (+6%)	1mo	$299,500	$125	68
2010 Starlight St	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,488 (+10%)	2mo	$319,990	$129	64
2126 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,984 (-12%)	1mo	$303,990	$153	64
1902 Stargazer Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-13%)	2mo	$328,990	$167	63
3607 Atlas Point Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-15%)	2mo	$301,990	$157	62
2943 Summer Breeze Way	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-9%)	2mo	$292,990	$142	53
2931 Summer Breeze Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-9%)	2mo	$292,990	$142	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,384
• Equity at exit: $44,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-69,599
• Equity at exit: $26,020

Cash invested: $84,265 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,514/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,633

Max offer price $272,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-95	+0% $-199	+5% $-303	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-293	+0% $-199	+5% $-105	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-122	base $-199	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,236
• Closing costs: $9,028
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,250	$1.20	1d	1	0.22mi
513 Robin St Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,495	$1.31	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $281,990 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,990 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,990 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,990 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $293,990 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,990 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,990 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $308,990 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $308,990 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,990 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,990 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,990 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,990 Active 195 DOM
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $308,990 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,858
• − Property taxes: −$4,514
• − Insurance: −$1,505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$8,755
• Taxable loss: −$7,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level and a versatile game room on the second floor. The home is move-in ready with a good exterior and interior condition. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its value include painting the exterior, landscaping improvements, adding smart home features, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding a smart thermostat.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 785.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $308,990 Zillow