1308 Winding Willow Dr · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$269,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,113 sqft lot $118/sqft · 33% below area Est $401k · 33% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this lovely home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, open floor plan with a spacious kitchen, and a cozy living room. The backyard is perfect for entertaining with a covered patio addition. Garage is equipped with a mini split A/C. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping; this property is ideal for families looking for a peaceful retreat. Enjoy the tranquility of this inviting home in a desirable area.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Open floor plan
• Cozy living room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• COVERED PATIO ADDITION
• MINI SPLIT A/C
• NEAR SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-408 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,748 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,181
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -32.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 W Rollingwood St	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,286 (+0%)	4mo	$585,000	$256	60
13200 N Decker Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,969 (-14%)	2mo	$409,900	$208	58
506 Blossom Cove Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,419 (+6%)	3mo	$449,900	$186	57
12506 Patridge Cir	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (-10%)	0mo	$405,000	$197	52
1019 Ginger Glade Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+10%)	2mo	$439,900	$176	47
1063 Ginger Glade Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,378 (+4%)	20mo	$469,000	$197	44
514 Pearl View Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+10%)	5mo	$437,900	$175	44
553 Rolling Brook Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,499 (+10%)	14mo	$457,000	$183	42
818 Evergreen Meadows Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,498 (+10%)	14mo	$464,990	$186	40
510 Blossom Cove Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,561 (+12%)	11mo	$479,900	$187	38
818 Coe Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (-10%)	16mo	$306,000	$149	30
12314 Patridge Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,481 (+9%)	19mo	$250,000	$101	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,423
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-92,626
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$744 /mo · $8,934/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,956

Max offer price $197,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-332	+0% $-408	+5% $-485	+10% $-561
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-505	+0% $-408	+5% $-312	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-340	base $-408	+0.5pp $-478	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $269,900 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this lovely home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, open floor plan with a spacious kitchen, and a cozy living room. The backyard is perfect for entertaining with a covered patio addition. Garage is equipped with a mini split A/C. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping; this property is ideal for families looking for a peaceful retreat. Enjoy the tranquility of this inviting home in a desirable area.

17. 2026-04-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this lovely home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, open floor plan with a spacious kitchen, and a cozy living room. The backyard is perfect for entertaining with a covered patio addition. Garage is equipped with a mini split A/C. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping; this property is ideal for families looking for a peaceful retreat. Enjoy the tranquility of this inviting home in a desirable area.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $269,900
19. 2026-02-22
    price $289,000
20. 2026-02-15
    listed $299,000 Active
21. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus
22. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-11-10
    status Pending
24. 2021-10-27
    status Option Pending
25. 2021-10-21
    listed $260,300 Active
26. 2021-08-13
    soldstatus
27. 2020-12-22
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2020-06-11
    listed $199,990
29. 2020-06-11
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,934 · $744/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,934 · $744/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$8,934
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$9,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Rental ceiling fans — Ceiling fans can improve air circulation and make the home more comfortable for tenants during warmer months.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental ceiling fans — Ceiling fans can improve air circulation and make the home more comfortable for tenants during warmer months. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-21 Listed $260,300 HARMLS
• 2021-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-06-11 Listed $199,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,934 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.